[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT33 KNHC 062045
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020

...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 90.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a
gradual turn toward the north-northwest.  On the forecast track, the
center of Cristobal will move northward over the central Gulf of
Mexico today and tonight, and will be near the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast on Sunday.  Cristobal's center is then forecast to move
inland across Louisiana late Sunday through Monday morning, and
northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast until landfall occurs on
the northern Gulf coast.  Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves
inland late Sunday and Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola
Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late
tonight or Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the eastern and central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12
inches.   Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the
central Gulf Coast.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local
amounts to 6 inches, are expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on
smaller streams across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and
evening across west central Florida, and early Sunday morning along
the north central and northeast Gulf coast.

SURF:  Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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