[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060643 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...COR
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

CORRECTED FOR T.S. CRISTOBAL CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 0600 UTC

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 23.3N 90.1W at
06/0600 UTC. Cristobal is moving N, or 360 degrees, 12 knots.
Cristobal is about 350 nm/650 km to the south of the mouth of the
Mississippi River. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998
mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to
50 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 120 nm to 435
nm away from the center in the NE quadrant, and in parts of the
Yucatan Channel and in the easternmost parts of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other
rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico from 94W eastward. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered
moderate rainshowers, are in the Atlantic Ocean, from 70W
westward.

The storm is moving northward at a slightly faster pace, about 12
knots. A south to north steering flow, between a western Atlantic
Ocean deep layer ridge and a western Gulf of Mexico middle level
to upper level trough, should cause Cristobal to continue moving
generally northward for the next couple of days. This motion
should take the center of the storm across the Louisiana coast by
Sunday night. A slight turn to the northwest is expected around
the landfall time, as a middle level ridge moves across the
central and eastern U.S.A.

Damaging and deadly flooding already has been occurring in
parts of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to
produce additional extreme rainfall amounts for another day or so.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected in far southern
Mexico, in parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, and also along the
eastern Pacific Ocean coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El
Salvador. It is possible that this rainfall may cause widespread
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read bulletins and
forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological
service, for more details.

There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System, from the Mouth
of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-
threatening storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big
Bend, and in other parts of southern and southeastern Louisiana,
where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these
locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

Tropical storm force winds are expected by late Saturday night
along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the
western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds
will arrive well in advance of and extend well to the east of
Cristobal’s center.

Heavy rainfall will spread into parts of the Gulf of Mexico coast,
from east Texas to Florida, from this weekend into early next
week, with areas of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be
possible on smaller tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall
occurs in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

A Central American Gyre remains in southern Mexico and northern
Central America. The broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre
encompasses the discussion waters from 10N northward from 100W
eastward. The gyre is characterized by a northward displacement
of the monsoon trough in Central America, and associated deep
convective precipitation usually is found to the south of the
trough.

Cristobal, now a tropical storm just off the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, remains embedded within the larger circulation of the
gyre. Expect additional heavy rainfall in parts of southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America through tomorrow. The heaviest
additional rainfall is expected in the southeastern Mexican
provinces of Chiapas, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo, and in parts of
Guatemala and Belize. It is possible that the rainfall may cause
widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please read
bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national
meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 16N
southward, moving west 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 09N
southward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W, from 19N southward,
moving west 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within
200 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 10N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W, from 18N
southward, moving west 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent with this tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N17W, and to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N23W, to 04N32W. The ITCZ also is along 02N/03N between 36W
and 46W. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong is from 05N
to 08N between 10W and 15W, and from 01N to 04N between 21W and
24W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is
elsewhere from 01N to 10N between 14W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 22.7N 90.1W 998 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving N at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt gusts 50 kt.
Cristobal will move to 24.1N 90.3W Sat morning, 25.9N 90.3W Sat
evening, 27.7N 90.2W Sun morning. Cristobal will make land and be
near 29.5N 90.8W Sun evening, then reach 31.7N 91.9W Mon morning,
and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.4N 92.8W Mon evening.
Moderate to fresh southerly wind flow will be present across most
of the north central Gulf of Mexico through late Tuesday, once
Cristobal moves inland.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
heavy rainfall event that is occurring in Central America.

A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near
10N74W, into the SW Caribbean Sea, across Nicaragua from SE to NW,
into southern Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 14N
southward from 79W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level western
Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough is reaching the eastern
half of the coast of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 70W eastward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the area
that is around T.S. CRISTOBAL, that is in the south central Gulf
of Mexico. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: rainshowers are
possible elsewhere, from 70W westward.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre,
will persist in northern Central America and southern Mexico, for
several days. Expect widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms in
the far NW Caribbean Sea, through the weekend. Gale-force SE to S
winds, and building seas, are in the NW Caribbean Sea, and will
continue into Saturday morning. Strong winds will prevail through
Saturday night. Fresh to strong trade winds also will continue in
the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night. A tropical wave
will support scattered rainshowers this weekend in the SE part of
the basin, and in the Windward Islands.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 30W eastward. A surface trough extends
from a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 33N20W, through
30N19W, to 24N23W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
20N northward from 33W eastward.

Abundant moisture, pouring NE from the Central American Gyre, and
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Cristobal, continue to support
scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms in parts of Florida
and the northwestern Bahamas. These rainshowers will persist into
early next week, as Cristobal moves through the north central
Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will support fresh trade winds,
mainly to the north of Hispaniola, through the weekend.

$$
MT
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