[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2300 UTC Wed Jun 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Cristobal is weakening very slowly while moving over land near
Ciudad del Carmen in Mexico. It is centered near 18.3N 91.8W at
03/2100 UTC moving toward the SE or 135 degrees at 3 kt. A turn
toward the east is expected by tonight. A turn toward the north-
northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center will move over eastern Mexico through
Thursday. Then, the center of Cristobal is forecast to move back
over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and over the central
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Estimated minimal central pressure
is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds speed is 45 kt with gusts to
55 kt. Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by
Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on
Friday as it moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. Cristobal is
expected to produce rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches over the
Mexican states of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and
Yucatan, with 5-10 inches of rain in Veracruz and Oaxaca. In
Central America, portions of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and
southwestern Honduras are also likely to receive additional
rounds of heavy rain. The rains could lead to additional life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
Gyre circulation (i.e. CAG), that has been bringing heavy
rainfall and severe flooding to parts of Central America and
southern Mexico during the last several days. Additional heavy
rainfall is expected through Fri night. As Cristobal interacts
with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, abundant tropical
moisture in a southwesterly flow will continue to impact SE
Mexico and northern Central America. Rounds of heavy rain are
expected in El Salvador, with additional 10-15 inches of rain,
mainly from Thu afternoon through early Sat. Belize and Honduras
could receive 3 to 6 inches of rain. Rainfall in all of these areas
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Please read bulletins and forecasts issued by your local or
national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 30W, S of 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Convection is limited near the wave axis.

A second tropical wave is along 52W/53W, S of 17N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. This wave is helping to induce some convective
activity over French Guiana and Suriname. The wave shows up
reasonably well in the TPW animation, and 700 mb streamline
analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea, Africa near 11N15W and continues to 10N30W. The ITCZ
extends 09N34W to 07N42W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 05N to 07N between 15W and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
Tropical Storm Cristobal, and heavy rainfall across southern
Mexico. During the last 24 hours, ending at 8 am this morning,
the Weather Service in Mexico reported rainfall amounts of 328.9
mm (13 inches) in Campeche, followed by 222.4 mm (9 inches) in
Tabasco and 220.8 mm (9 inches) in Chiapas.

The pressure gradient between Cristobal and a 1018 mb high
pressure over the SE CONUS is producing an area of moderate to
strong easterly winds across the southern Gulf, mainly S of 25N
with seas of 8-10 ft roughly between 87W and 95W. These marine
conditions will persist on Thu. As Cristobal moves back into the
Gulf waters by Fri, winds and seas will continue to increase
across the Gulf region. Expect swells from Cristobal to begin
impacting the NW and north-central waters on Sat. After Cristobal
moves inland in the general area of the north-central Gulf, moderate
to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the region
through Sun night.

Diurnal heating, combined with a SE wind flow along the western
periphery of the Bermuda high and the remnants of a frontal
boundary is supporting shower and thunderstorms over most of the
Florida Peninsula. Another round of convection, including
possible heavy rain is forecast for South Florida on Thu, with
the risk of urban flooding.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern
Mexico for the next few days. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details. This is also forecast to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean through
at least Sat.

The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong SE
winds over the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras.
As tropical cyclone Critobal moves back into the Gulf of Mexico
waters, the pressure gradient will tighten between Cristobal and
the Atlantic high pressure. As a result, strong southeast winds
and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east
of Yucatan Peninsula through Sat evening. Winds may reach gale
force in and near the Yucatan Channel Fri through most of Sat
along with building seas. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue over the central Caribbean through early Sat, then
diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Mon.

A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce some convective
activity over Cuba. A band of showers and thunderstorms over the
SW Caribbean could be associated with northward movement of the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough into the Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere,
patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A couple of tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser
Antilles. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details.

A stationary front extends from 31N48W to 25N60W to the central
Bahamas. This front is forecast to slowly dissipate through
early Thu. High pressure north of the front will support moderate
to fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Sat
before diminishing slightly Sun through Mon. Some convective
activity is associated with the front. Farther E, a cold front
crosses the Canary Islands and continues SW, then W along 24N30W
to 28N42W. Patches of low level clouds are along the frontal
boundary.

$$
GR
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