[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032228
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2300 UTC Wed Jun 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Cristobal is weakening very slowly while moving over land near
Ciudad del Carmen in Mexico. It is centered near 18.3N 91.8W at
03/2100 UTC moving toward the SE or 135 degrees at 3 kt. A turn
toward the east is expected by tonight. A turn toward the north-
northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center will move over eastern Mexico through
Thursday. Then, the center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and over the central Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday. Estimated minimal central pressure is 995 mb.
Maximum sustained winds speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday
evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday as
it moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. Cristobal is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches over the Mexican states
of Campeche, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Yucatan, with
5-10 inches of rain in Veracruz and Oaxaca. In Central America,
portions of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern
Honduras are also likely to receive additional rounds of heavy
rain. The rains could lead to additional life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by yhe
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
Gyre circulation (i.e. CAG), that has been bringing heavy
rainfall and severe flooding to parts of Central America and
southern Mexico during the last several days. Additional heavy
rainfall is expected through Fri night. As Cristobal interacts
with the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, abundant tropical
moisture in a southwesterly flow will continue to impact SE
Mexico and northern Central America. Rounds of heavy rain are
expected in El Salvador, with additional 10-15 inches of rain,
mainly from Thu afternoon through early Sat. Belize and Honduras
could receive 3 to 6 inches of rain. Rainfall in all of these areas
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Please read bulletins and forecasts issued by your local or
national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 30W, S of 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Convection is limited near the wave axis.

A second tropical wave is along 52W/53W, S of 17N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. This wave is helping to induce some convective
activity over Frech Guiana and Suriname. The wave shows up
reasonably well in the TPW animation, and 700 mb streamline
analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Guinea, Africa near 11N15W to 10N30W. The ITCZ extends 09N34W
to 07N42W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 05N to 07N between 15W and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
Tropical Storm Cristobal, and heavy rainfall across southern
Mexico.

The pressure gradient between Cristobal and a 1018 mb high
pressure over the SE CONUS is producing an area of moderate to
strong easterly winds across the southern Gulf, mainly S of 25N
with seas of 8-10 ft roughly between 87W and 95W. These marine
conditions will persist on Thu. As Cristobal moves back into the
Gulf waters by Fri, winds and seas will continue to increase
across the Gulf region. Expect swells from Cristobal to begin
impacting the NW and north-central waters on Sat. After Cristobal
moves inland in the general area of the north-central Gulf, moderate
to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the area
through Sun night.

Diurnal heating, combined with a SE wind flow along the western
periphery of the Bermuda high and the remnants of a frontal
boundary is helping to induce shower and thunderstorms over most
of the Florida Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
Gyre, will persist over northern Central America and southern
Mexico for several days. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details. This is also forecast to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean through
at least Sat.

The most recent scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong SE
winds over the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras.
As tropical cyclone Critobal moves back over the Gulf of Mexico
waters, the pressure gradient will tight between Cristobal and
the Atlantic high pressure. As a result, strong southeast winds
and building seas will continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east
of Yucatan Peninsula through Sat evening. Winds may reach gale
force in and near the Yucatan Channel Fri through most of Sat
along with building seas. Fresh to strong trade winds will
continue over the central Caribbean through early Sat, then
diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Mon.

A diffuent pattern aloft is helping to induce some convective
activity over Cuba. A band of showers and thunderstorms over the
SW Caribbean could be associated with northward movement of the
eastern Pacifoc monsoon trough into the Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere,
patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow
prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
currently moving across the basin.

A diffluent flow aloft is enhancing convection over the west
Atlantic mainly west of 77W. To the east, a stationary front
extends from 31N50W to 25N76W. Scattered showers are noted along
the front. A cod front extends from 31N16W to 25N29W to 29N42W.
No convection is noted with this boundary.

The stationary front extending will slowly dissipate through
tonight. High pressure north of the front will support moderate
to fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Sat
before diminishing slightly Sun.

$$
GR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net