[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 19.1N 92.3W at
03/0900 UTC. This position also is about 30 nm NNW of Ciudad del
Carmen Mexico. Cristobal is moving southeastward at 3 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 240 nm of
the center, including in the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered
moderate isolated strong is elsewhere from 22N southward between
90W and 95W. Movement: the storm is expected to move slowly
southward or southeastward, as it remains within a larger
cyclonic gyre that is centered in eastern Mexico.  This motion
should bring the center onshore to the coast of Mexico, in the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, later today. Cristobal is
forecast to continue to move very slowly toward the east or
southeast through early Thursday. Increasing southerly flow
should allow the storm to begin moving northward in the central
and northern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Additional heavy
rainfall is expected in southern Mexico and northern Central
America, potentially leading to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides during the next few days. Please read the latest
NHC forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American
Gyre circulation, that has been bringing heavy rainfall and
severe flooding to parts of Central America and southern Mexico
during the last several days. Additional heavy rainfall is
expected through Saturday in parts of southern Mexico from the
Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern sections of
Veracruz and Oaxaca. For Central America: in parts of Belize,
Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras: it is likely
that these areas also may receive additional heavy rainfall. It
is possible that the rainfall total for the entire event, from
tropical cyclones and the gyre circulation, may end up reaching
35 inches, nearly one meter. It is possible that the rains may
lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please read
bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or
national meteorological service, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is on either side of the tropical wave, with either the
monsoon trough or with the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N17W and 03N24W. The ITCZ is along 06N
from 30W to 47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate
isolatedstrong is within 220 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
42W and 45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180
nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and within 180 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough between 18W and 25W. Isolated
moderate covers the rest of the area from the monsoon trough to
10N from the 28W tropical wave eastward, and within 300 nm to
the north of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rain showers cover the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico, except within 210 nm of the coast of Texas. The
clouds and precipitation are related to moisture that is around
the periphery of the circulation of T.S. Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Cristobal near 18.9N 92.0W, maximum sustained
winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Cristobal will move inland today,
weaken to a tropical depression, re-intensify to a tropical
storm on Fri, then increase in intensity and move northward
through Sat night. After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to
fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the area
through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
heavy rainfall situation for Central America.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the
area that is around T.S. CRISTOBAL, that is in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward and
70W westward, in the waters between Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba;
and from 15N northward from 82W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean
Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level trough is
reaching eastern Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is in the Mona Passage.

One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia,
across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, beyond northern
Nicaragua, to southern Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is to the south of a line that runs
from the NE corner of Nicaragua to the coast of Colombia near
11N75W. Scattered moderate to strong is from 07N to 11N between
72W and 75W.

A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American
Gyre, will persist in northern Central America and southern
Mexico for several days. Expect widespread heavy rain showers
and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong SE winds, and
seas, are expected to continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east
of Yucatan, through Saturday. Fresh trade winds are expected in
the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N49W, to
26N59W,  to the central Bahamas near Andros Island.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270
nm to the SSE of the cold front from 66W eastward.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N16W, to
28N20W, 27N30W, to 31N37W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is
within 120 nm on either side of the cold front.

The western Atlantic Ocean cold front will drift southward and
stall this morning, then slowly dissipate through tonight. High
pressure north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade
winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Saturday.

$$
mt/dbm
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