[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT33 KNHC 022357
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.3 West.  Cristobal is
meandering generally southward near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn
toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday,
followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday
night and Friday.  On the forecast track, the center will cross the
southern Bay of Campeche coast on Wednesday and move inland over
eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and move back over the
Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance
plane and surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional increase in strength is possible until the center
crosses the coast.  Gradual weakening is forecast while the center
remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal
moves back over water Thursday night and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km)
from the center.  An automated weather station on a Mexican offshore
platform recently measured a sustained wind of 48 mph with a gust to
62 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.
Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10
to 15 inches over northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Yucatan.
Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25
inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala,
and El Salvador.  Some of these  Pacific locations received 20
inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35
inches are possible.  Rainfall in all of these areas may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky
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