[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 021504
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the depression and has found that the system is very
close to tropical storm strength.  Based on flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at
30 kt for now.  Since the cyclone is over very warm waters with
fairly low vertical shear, intensification to a tropical storm
should occur today.  The official intensity forecast is close to the
model consensus.  The intensity forecast later in the period is
dependent on how much shear the system will encounter over the
northern Gulf of Mexico and this is somewhat uncertain.  For now,
the intensity forecast will remain conservative.

The initial motion estimate is slowly westward, or 270/3 kt.  The
cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents over the
Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days, with the system moving
slowly within a broader gyre over eastern Mexico.  Global models
show the cyclone being trapped between two mid-level anticyclones
until later in the week, when some increase in southerly flow should
begin to carry the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico
coastline.  The official track forecast closely follows the
dynamical model consensus.

At this time, both the track and intensity forecasts are of low
confidence.  However, for the next couple of days, the main threat
from this slow-moving cyclone is from widespread heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.


Key Messages:

1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and
El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring
additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala,
Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather
office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico by this weekend.  However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 19.5N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 19.5N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.0N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 18.8N  92.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 18.8N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 18.9N  91.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 19.8N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 26.0N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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