[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092020
1139 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This product covers East Central Florida

**HURRICANE WARNING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY**

**TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Hurricane Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning
      for Coastal Volusia
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Inland Volusia

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia, Indian River, Martin, Northern Brevard,
      Southern Brevard, and St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 440 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 360
      miles southeast of Stuart FL
    - 23.3N 76.4W
    - Storm Intensity 80 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Isaias will move northwest toward Andros Island in the
central Bahamas overnight before continuing its northwest track
between the southeast Florida coast and the northwestern Bahamas
through Saturday evening. The center of Isaias will move very near
the Treasure Coast counties of Martin, Saint Lucie, and Indian
River Saturday night from early Sunday morning through early
afternoon, near the Brevard County coast from Sunday afternoon into
the evening, and offshore the Volusia County coast Sunday night.
Isaias is expected to maintain category one hurricane strength as
it does so.

Based on the latest track and intensity forecasts, tropical storm
conditions will reach the Treasure Coast counties starting Saturday
evening, with hurricane conditions expected along coastal areas
Sunday morning into early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach Brevard county after midnight Saturday night with
hurricane conditions expected on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
will begin to overspread coastal Volusia County Sunday afternoon,
with hurricane conditions possible from late Sunday evening through
a little past midnight.

A Hurricane Warning is not in effect for all coastal counties of
east central Florida. Tropical storm conditions are also expected
to spread into the interior counties of east central Florida,
including Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and inland portions
of Volusia County from south to north from early Sunday morning
through early Monday morning.

Rain bands with gusty squalls from Isaias will begin to reach the
Treasure Coast late Saturday afternoon, increasing in coverage and
intensity as they spread north Saturday night through Sunday. Total
rainfall amounts may reach 3 to 6 inches over the coastal counties,
with the highest totals expected over the immediate Treasure Coast.
Rainfall across inland areas will be lower, with as much as 2 to 4
inches expected in some areas. Heavy rainfall may cause flooding of
urban and other poorly drained and low-lying areas.

A Storm Surge Watch remains in effect along the east central Florida
coast. There is the potential for life threatening storm surge along
portions of the immediate coast that are typically vulnerable to
elevated ocean levels or where dune erosion has occurred. Low land
flooding is also possible along the intracoastal waterways and in
vulnerable low lands near inlets and other low areas near the coast.

Long period swells from Isaias will will create a high risk for strong
and life threatening rip currents through this weekend. The building
seas and surf will will also result in dangerously high seas of 20
feet or higher, and large breaking waves in excess of 7 feet. Beach
erosion is likely around the times of high tide throughout the
upcoming weekend. Boating and beach activity will become extremely
dangerous, so you will want to stay out of the water.

Now is the time to complete protective actions. Have a personal
hurricane plan of safety for yourself and family and follow
recommendations of county emergency management officials.

Persons in east central Florida should continue to monitor the latest
forecasts, statements and warnings from the National Hurricane Center,
and your National Weather Service office in Melbourne.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across all coastal counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange, Seminole,
and inland Volusia Counties.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts along the entire central Florida Atlantic coast. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Elsewhere across East Central Florida, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across areas adjacent to the coast in Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian
River, and Brevard Counties. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across East Central Florida, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 600 AM EDT Saturday, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$

Cristaldi
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