[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL092020
1105 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This product covers South Florida

**Hurricane Isaias expected to approach Southeast Florida tomorrow**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Broward and Inland Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Far South Miami-Dade
      and Inland Miami-Dade
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Miami-Dade,
      Inland Broward, Metro Broward, and Metro Miami-Dade
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Coastal Palm Beach and
      Metro Palm Beach

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 330 miles southeast of West Palm Beach FL or about 290
      miles southeast of Miami FL
    - 23.3N 76.4W
    - Storm Intensity 80 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to move northwest near the Central
Bahamas tonight, the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday, then across the
Gulfstream and near the Florida Atlantic coast Saturday night as a
Category 1 hurricane. Preparations to protect life and property should
be rushed to completion no later than Saturday morning.

Damaging hurricane force winds are expected to affect parts of coastal
and metro Palm Beach County from Saturday night through early Sunday
morning. The possibility of hurricane force winds reaching further
south along the coast into Broward County remains for late Saturday or
Saturday night. Tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive
along the Atlantic coast of South Florida on Saturday afternoon.
Continue to monitor trends and be ready to take appropriate action if
the forecast track continues to shift further west early Saturday.

With the forecasted approach of Isaias closer to the coast, and
accounting for the possibility of further westward shifts in the
forecast track in future forecasts, a reasonable worst case scenario
at this time is for damaging, sustained high-end tropical storm force
wind (58 mph or greater) over all of coastal and metro Broward County,
as well as northern and central portions of coastal and metro
Miami-Dade County. There is also the possibility of sustained tropical
storm force winds of 40 to 50 mph over inland sections of Miami-Dade
County northward to Lake Okeechobee. If the track of Isaias were to
shift even closer to the coast in future forecasts, hurricane and
tropical storm conditions could spread further inland over southern
Florida.

Winds are forecast to gradually subside from south to north early
Sunday.

Other concerns with Isaias will be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall and urban flooding late Saturday through Sunday, particularly
across eastern portions of South Florida and around Lake Okeechobee
where there is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. High surf,
dangerous rip currents, minor coastal flooding, and beach erosion are
expected, with the greater impacts along the Palm Beach and Broward
coasts. A stronger storm and/or a track closer to the coast would
increase the threat of coastal flooding, so again it is important to
keep monitoring future forecasts.

Marine conditions will deteriorate early Saturday morning as the
system approaches the region from east to west across the local
Atlantic waters, with increasing winds and building seas. Marine
conditions are not likely to improve until sometime on Sunday at the
earliest.

Tornadic activity focused over the Atlantic waters and the east coast
cannot be ruled out.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across Palm Beach County. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the remainder of southeast Florida,
particularly eastern Broward and Miami-Dade Counties.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across coastal Palm Beach and Broward Counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Southeast Florida metropolitan areas and
Lake Okeechobee region. Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly rise with swift currents.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Southeast Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
      branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
      vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across South Florida, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$

RAG/RF/HVN
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