[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 010248
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102020
200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

The small depression maintained a large burst of convection in its
northwest quadrant for several hours after the last advisory, though
cloud tops have warmed steadily since around 00Z. An ASCAT-B pass
near 2300 UTC showed max winds near 35 kt, but these winds coincided
with the coldest cloud tops in Meteosat imagery at that time,
indicating they may have been rain inflated. Data from ASCAT-C valid
about 40 minutes earlier only showed peak winds closer to 30 kt,
also near the deepest convection. The highest wind retrievals in the
east half of the circulation, where you would often expect the
highest winds for a system moving north or northwest, were between
25 and 30 kt in both passes. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
were 30 kt and 25 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 00Z. It is
possible that the cyclone briefly had tropical-storm-strength winds
at one point, but given the observed warming of cloud tops since
00Z, the intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.

There is no real change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is
moving northwestward and a turn toward the west-northwest is
expected later today as it moves around a larger cyclonic gyre.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for any strengthening, and
the dynamical models indicate that deep convection will dissipate
later today due to cool underlying SSTs and a drier surrounding
environment. The NHC track and intensity forecast is based on the
TVCA and IVCN consensus aids and has not been changed significantly
from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 17.1N  21.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 18.4N  22.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 19.3N  25.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1200Z 20.0N  28.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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