[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL092020
527 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND STORM SURGE WATCH FOR ST. JOHNS AND
FLAGLER COUNTY COASTS...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued
      for Coastal Flagler and Coastal St. Johns

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Flagler and Coastal St. Johns

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 640 miles southeast of Jacksonville FL
    - 22.6N 75.7W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 15 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Isaias is forecast to continue to track northwest across the
southern Bahamas through tonight, then across the northern Bahamas and near
the south Florida Atlantic coast through Saturday night. The hurricane is
expected to begin a northward turn late Saturday into Sunday, which will bring
the storm near the northeast Florida Atlantic coast as it continues a northward
track Sunday night and Monday. Due to the close approach of Isaias to the
northeast Florida coast, a Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch have
been issued for the St. Johns County and Flagler County coasts.

A tropical storm watch means that sustained tropical storm force winds of
39 mph or greater are possible in the watch area within 48 hours. A storm surge
watch means that life-threatening water rise of 3 ft or more is possible
somewhere in the watch area over the next 48 hours.

Dangerous rip currents and building rough seas will continue tonight,
with worsening coastal and marine conditions Saturday. Bands of
rainfall with gusts near tropical storm force will be begin to
increase over the local Atlantic waters and portions of northeast
Florida Saturday night. As water levels and winds increase, coastal flooding
and beach erosion are expected, with the greatest impacts along the St.
Johns and Flagler county coasts Sunday into Monday.

If the track of Isaias were to shift closer to the coast, tropical storm
conditions could spread farther north and inland over northeast Florida and
possibly parts of coastal southeast Georgia. Therefore it is important to
continue to monitor trends with future advisories and take appropriate actions
before conditions deteriorate late Saturday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous winds having possible impacts across coastal St. Johns and
Flagler counties. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida, rain bands could bring gusts near
tropical storm force at times Saturday night through Monday.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts along the St. Johns and Flagler county coasts. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts along the Nassau and Duval county Atlantic coasts, within the
Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River basin.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts over St. Johns and Flagler counties. Potential
impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 1130 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$

ENYEDI
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