[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 312048
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102020
800 PM CVT Fri Jul 31 2020

Deep convection has recently developed closer to the center of a
small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of
the Cabo Verde Islands.  Earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of
around 25 kt, but given the small size of the system and the likely
undersampling of the instrument, the initial intensity is set at 30
kt.  This is in line with a Dvorak classification of T2.0 from SAB.
With the recent increase in convective organization, there is a
potential for the depression to become a short-lived tropical storm
tonight.  After that time, the environment is forecast to become
increasingly hostile as cooler waters and less favorable
thermodynamic conditions lie ahead.  As a result, weakening should
begin on Saturday and the system is forecast to become a remnant low
Saturday night and dissipate shortly thereafter.

The system is moving slightly west of due north, or 355/8 kt.  The
depression is forecast to turn northwestward tonight, then
west-northwestward to westward on Saturday and Saturday night as it
moves around the eastern side of a large cyclonic gyre over the far
eastern Atlantic.  The track guidance is in relatively good
agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the TVCA multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 15.9N  20.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 17.3N  21.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 18.5N  23.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 18.8N  25.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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