[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 311751
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ISAIAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 75.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias.  Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar
near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 75.2 West. Isaias is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the day or so followed by a turn toward the north-northwest.  On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move near
or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be
near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the
Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida
peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected later today and tonight, and Isaias is
forecast to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Turks and Caicos this morning. Hurricane conditions in the
southeastern Bahamas will spread northwestward into the central and
northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Florida beginning Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

>From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern
Carolinas by early next week.  This rain could result in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread into the central
northwestern Bahamas later today and along the east coast of
Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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