[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Isaias Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092020
1141 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This product covers East Central Florida

**HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR BREVARD, INDIAN RIVER, SAINT
LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Northern Brevard and
      Southern Brevard
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Hurricane Watch
      and the Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical
      Storm Warning for Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Northern Brevard and
      Southern Brevard
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 600 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 520
      miles southeast of Stuart FL
    - 21.7N 74.5W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 16 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Isaias, moving into the southeastern Bahamas this morning,
is forecast to move northwest into the central Bahamas by tonight,
and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. The latest forecast
remains consistent in turning Isaias north-northwest and then
northward, paralleling the central Florida Atlantic coast while
remaining about 20 to 30 miles offshore at its closest point of
approach Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

Isaias is forecast to remain a category one hurricane as it moves
toward the Atlantic waters just offshore the Treasure Coast Saturday
night and just offshore of Brevard by Sunday morning. With the close
approach of Hurricane Isaias, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for
Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. A Tropical Storm Warning is
also now in effect for the Indian River, Saint Lucie and Martin
counties.

Based on the latest forecast track, tropical storm conditions are
expected for Brevard and the Treasure Coast with the possibility of
hurricane conditions for these areas if Isaias tracks closer to the
east coast. There remains the possibility that the core of the
hurricane could impact the barrier islands and immediate coastal
areas, with hurricane force gusts and damaging wind potential.

At this time, breezy to windy conditions are expected across interior
portions of east central Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Tropical
storm gusts may occur in squalls that reach inland areas by late
Saturday night and Sunday.

Rain bands with gusty squalls from Isaias will reach the Treasure
Coast Saturday afternoon, increasing in coverage and intensity as they
spread north along the coast Saturday night through Sunday. Rainfall
amounts may reach 3 to 5 inches across the coastal counties, with the
heaviest totals expected over the Treasure Coast. Rainfall across
inland areas will be lower with 1 to 3 inches expected. This may cause
minor flooding of urban and other poorly drained and low-lying areas.

Long period swells from Isaias will reach the surf zone today and
build through this weekend. This will create a high risk for strong
and life threatening rip currents. The building seas and surf will
will also result in dangerously high seas of 20 feet or higher, and
large breaking waves in excess of 7 feet. Beach erosion is likely
around the times of high tide throughout the upcoming weekend. Boating
and beach activity will become extremely dangerous, so you will want
to stay out of the water.

Persons in east central Florida should continue to monitor the latest
forecasts and statements from the National Hurricane Center, and your
National Weather Service office in Melbourne through this weekend.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across the barrier island and coastal areas. Potential impacts in this
area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across inland portions of the coastal counties.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across East Central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become
      swollen and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.


When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 530 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Volkmer
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