[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 311157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SQUALLS LASHING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 73.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula later today.  The Tropical Storm Warning for the
Dominican Republic will likely be discontinued later this morning.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 21.3 North, longitude 73.9 West. Isaias is moving toward
the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next
couple of days followed by a turn toward the north-northwest.  On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the
Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be near the
Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the Northwestern
Bahamas and be near or east of the Florida peninsula on Saturday and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is expected
to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A private weather observing site at Long Bay Beach
in Providenciales recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (86
km/h) and a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h).

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos this morning.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the southeastern
Bahamas this morning and spread into the central and
northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

>From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern
Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of
Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and
along the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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