[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 310546
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...ISAIAS MOVING CLOSER TO GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 72.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system.  Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula on Friday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 72.7 West. Isaias is moving
toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next couple of days followed by turn toward the
north-northwest.  On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will
move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas overnight. Isaias is
forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and move near
or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is expected
to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the central and northwestern Bahamas.  Storm surge will
raise water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels
in the southeastern Bahamas.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos tonight and early Friday.  Hurricane
conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday
morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late
Friday.  Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

>From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of
Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and
across the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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