[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm ISAIAS, at 30/0600 UTC, is near
16.7N 67.2W. This position also is about 87 nm/160 km to the SSW
of Ponce in Puerto Rico; and about 187 nm/350 KM to the SE of
Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. ISAIAS is moving NW, or
305 degrees, 17 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with
gusts to 55 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong is within 240
nm of the center in the N semicircle. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 420 nm of the center in the S
semicircle. The current forecast moves the center of ISAIAS
across Hispaniola on Thursday, and near the Southeastern Bahamas
by early Friday. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward, up
to 300 nm/555 km, mainly to the NE of the center. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 20N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is in the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 21N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 20N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 13N southward from 75W westward, in
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Other precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N southward from
82W westward, in the coastal waters of Honduras, and inland in
Belize and Guatemala. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in SE Nicaragua.

A tropical wave is along 92W/93W from 20N southward. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Yucatan Peninsula and the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, associated with an upper level
inverted trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong covers the areas that are from 22N southward between the
Yucatan Peninsula and 94W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 16N17W, to 15N20W to 11N30W, 07N40W, and 06N48W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 360 nm to south of the monsoon trough, and elsewhere from
10N southward between 48W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 250 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation
center is in Louisiana, and in E and SE Texas. Upper level NE
wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 500 mb and
for 700 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center is in
the north central/east central Gulf of Mexico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Yucatan Peninsula and
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, associated with an upper
level inverted trough. A tropical wave is along 92W/93W from 20N
southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
covers the areas that are from 22N southward between the Yucatan
Peninsula and 94W.

Tropical Storm Isaias near 15.8N 67.0W 1004 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving WNW at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt.
Isaias will move to 17.6N 69.3W Thu morning; inland to 19.4N
72.2W Thu evening; 21.4N 74.8W Fri morning; 22.9N 77.3W Fri
evening; 24.8N 79.2W Sat morning; inland to 26.6N 80.2W Sat
evening; and to 30.0N 80.5W Sun evening. A ridge will dominate
the rest of the Gulf of Mexico through Friday, supporting mainly
gentle to moderate return flow.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 20N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 13N southward from 75W westward, in
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Other precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N southward from
82W westward, in the coastal waters of Honduras, and inland in
Belize and Guatemala. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is in SE Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from Colombia along 74W
westward, to the coastal waters of Central America from
Nicaragua southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 13N southward from 75W westward, in the SW corner
of the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Isaias near 15.8N 67.0W 1004 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving WNW at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt.
Isaias will move to 17.6N 69.3W Thu morning; inland to 19.4N
72.2W Thu evening; 21.4N 74.8W Fri morning; 22.9N 77.3W Fri
evening; 24.8N 79.2W Sat morning; inland to 26.6N 80.2W Sat
evening; and to 30.0N 80.5W Sun evening. Tropical storm
conditions will continue across the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico through tonight, and then reach parts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti by early Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The GFS model for 250 nm, and current water vapor satellite
imagery, show that an anticyclonic circulation center is in the
Atlantic Ocean, about 600 nm to the ENE of T.S. ISAIAS.

The GFS model for 250 nm, and current water vapor satellite
imagery, show that a trough extends from SE Cuba toward Bermuda.
No significant deep convective precipitation is associated with
the trough. Multilayered clouds and precipitation, that are
accompanying T.S. ISAIAS, are within 400 nm to the E and ESE of
the trough. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 30N between 54W and 73W.

Tropical Storm Isaias near 15.8N 67.0W 1004 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving WNW at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt.
Isaias will move to 17.6N 69.3W Thu morning; inland to 19.4N
72.2W Thu evening; 21.4N 74.8W Fri morning; 22.9N 77.3W Fri
evening; 24.8N 79.2W Sat morning; inland to 26.6N 80.2W Sat
evening; and to 30.0N 80.5W Sun evening. Gale-force winds extend
more than 400 nm north and northeast of Isaias in the Atlantic.
Tropical storm conditions are possible NE of Isaias in a large
section of the SW North Atlantic Ocean, as the center of Isaias
moves from the NE Caribbean Sea, across Hispaniola, toward
southern Florida and the Bahamas.

$$
mt
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