[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 300537
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
200 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...STRONG RAIN BANDS FROM ISAIAS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 67.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 67.2 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola late
today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is likely when the center moves over
Hispaniola with some re-strengthening expected by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center. A Weatherflow station on
Culebra recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with
gusts to 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico overnight.  These conditions are forecast to reach portions of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area by this
morning, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos this
afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central
Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Across the Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Across the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3
to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
eastern Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today.  Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias will be affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through today.
These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
this morning.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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