[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT34 KNHC 290253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
1100 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 59.4W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the Turks and Caicos Islands. The government of the Dominican
Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast
of its country from the border with Haiti eastward to Punta
Caucedo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominica
* Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and
then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to
Punta Caucedo
* Turks and Caicos Islands

Interests elsewhere in the southeast and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 14.6 North, longitude 59.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over
the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move
through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward
Islands late tonight or Wednesday morning, and spread across the
U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic within the warning area early
Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
areas on Thursday.

RAINFALL:  The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.

Rainfall is also expected in the following locations:

Across the Windward Islands: 1 to 3 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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