[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 250843
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020
500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020

On the last leg in the east semicircle of Gonzalo, the 53rd Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported numerous SFMR winds
of 35 to 40 kts, with lighter winds at flight-level.  The surface
circulation, however, was still poorly defined, and barely closed.
Based on the reconnaissance observations, the initial intensity is
held at 35 kt for this advisory.

Due to the fact that Gonzalo is moving within an impeding
thermodynamic environment, little change in intensity is forecast
as the cyclone approaches the southern Windward Islands this
afternoon.  As Gonzalo moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea,
lingering large-scale subsidence and the cyclone's close proximity
to the coast of Venezuela are predicted to cause the system to
weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in a couple of
days which is consistent with the global model's solution.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/15 kt.
Gonzalo should gain very little latitude with time as it continues
moving westward to west-northwestward within the fresh low-level
tradewind flow.  The official forecast is once again nudged a bit
toward the south and aligns with the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model.


Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to
a portion of the southern Windward Islands today and tonight.
Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of
the islands.  Interests in the southern Windward Islands should
monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the
southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 10.1N  58.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 10.7N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 11.5N  65.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 12.1N  69.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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