[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 250240
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020
1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020

Although there has been a recent increase in deep convection in
association with Gonzalo, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft continues to show that the tropical cyclone is
poorly organized. The aircraft has not yet found winds to support
tropical storm strength, however the advisory intensity will remain
a possibly generous 35-kt until the aircraft completes its mission
overnight.  There is also some possibility that this recent
convective burst could result in some short-term re-organization.
However, with the system losing organization over the past day or
so, it is becoming less likely that the small cyclone will be able
to significantly recover due to the nearby dry mid-level
environment.  The updated NHC intensity forecast no longer calls
for any re-strengthening, and Gonzalo could even become a tropical
depression before reaching the Windward Islands.  After that time,
dry air and Gonzalo's close proximity to the coast of Venezuela are
likely to cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a trough
of low pressure.  The NHC forecast now calls for dissipation by
60 h, but this could occur sooner.

Gonzalo continues moving generally westward or 270/15 kt.   The
system is not expected to gain much latitude as it should continue
moving westward to west-northwestward within the low-level easterly
flow. The track guidance continues to trend southward and the NHC
track forecast has again been shifted in that direction.  The new
track lies to the south of the consensus aids, closest to the GFS
and UKMET ensemble means.


Key Messages

1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to
a portion of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday
night. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of
the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should
monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the
southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 10.0N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 10.4N  59.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 11.3N  62.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 12.2N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 12.7N  69.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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