[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 231450
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082020
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is getting better
organized, with a better-defined center located near the
northeastern end of a broadly curved convective band.  Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 30 kt, and
that will be the initial intensity for this advisory.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate the depression.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/8 kt.  A mid-level
ridge over the central United States is the predominant steering
influence, and the global models forecast this ridge to build
during the several days.  This should cause the depression to turn
more westward by 48-60 h and south of west after about 72 h.  The
track guidance is in good agreement with that scenario, and the new
NHC forecast track, which has only minor adjustments from the
previous track, lies near the various consensus models.  The new
forecast track has the center making landfall along the Texas coast
between 48-60 h.

The depression is in an environment of light shear and over warm
sea surface temperatures, so at least slow strengthening is
expected until landfall.  The new intensity forecast, which lies a
little below the intensity consensus, now calls for a peak
intensity of 45 kt before landfall.  Data from the Hurricane Hunter
will give more details on whether the structure of the cyclone has
improved or not, which will be incorporated into the next forecast
cycle.


Key Messages

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring
tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a
tropical storm watch is in effect.

2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains along the Gulf
Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast.  These rains could
result in flash flooding and minor river flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 26.3N  90.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 26.7N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 27.4N  93.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 27.8N  94.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 28.0N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 28.0N  98.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  26/1200Z 27.9N  99.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  27/1200Z 27.5N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  28/1200Z 27.0N 103.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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