[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 230242
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082020
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Surface observations and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Gulf of
Mexico has developed a closed circulation and a well-defined
center.  In addition, recent satellite images show an area of deep
convection expanding over the center.  Based on those observations,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight.  The
initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the earlier
reconnaissance data.

The initial motion is an uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt.  A
subtropical ridge to the northeast of the depression should cause
it to continue moving in that general direction through Friday as
it tracks across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  A slight turn to
the left is expected Friday night and Saturday as a ridge builds to
the north of the system, taking the center of cyclone across the
Texas coast and then inland over southern Texas.  The models are in
fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast
lies near the various consensus models.

The depression is expected to be in generally light to moderate
wind shear conditions, in a fairly moist environment, and over the
warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, so
some strengthening seems likely. However, since the depression is
still in its formative stage, the rate of strengthening should be
gradual.  After the storm crosses the coast, steady weakening should
commence.  The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and
HCCA guidance.

Key Messages

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring
tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a
tropical storm watch has been issued.

2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across
portions of Louisiana and southern Texas.  These rains could result
in flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 25.9N  88.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 26.3N  89.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 27.0N  90.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 27.9N  92.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 28.2N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 28.5N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 28.7N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  27/0000Z 28.8N  98.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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