[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1030 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.


Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 9.9N 43.6W at 22/1500 UTC or
1050 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 41W and
44W. Gonzalo is forecast to continue moving west, at a gradually
faster pace, through the end of the week. On the westward track, the
system will move into the offshore forecast zones east of the
Windward Islands Friday, and enter the eastern Caribbean Saturday.
Strengthening is forecast, and Gonzalo may become a hurricane Thu
morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N to 09N between 20W and 29W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W, from 18N southward. With
high pressure building north of the tropical wave, the steering
flow has strengthened. This has increased the forward motion of
the tropical wave, which is now moving westward at 20 to 25
knots. This is much faster than the average forward speed of
tropical waves, which is around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm on the east side of the wave
axis from 06N to 09N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W, from 22N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 60 nm of the wave axis from 16N to 22N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, from 23N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Low pressure has developed in
association with this wave, and is currently centered in the central
Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
over the eastern Gulf south of 22N extending along the Yucatan
Channel in association to this system. Please refer to the latest
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for further information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 092N30W to 10N37W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N52W to 07N58W. Aside from convection noted
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 28W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 25.7N87.9W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern Gulf south
of 26N in association to this system. Fresh to strong winds prevail
over the eastern Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The
remainder of the basin is under fair benign weather. The low will
continue to shift WNW across the Central Gulf today, and into the NW
Gulf Thursday and Friday. This low is being monitored for possible
tropical cyclone formation, with a medium probability of genesis by
the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds are expected in
association with this system the next couple of days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south-central Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Newly formed Tropical Storm
Gonzalo is near 9.9N 43.6W 1000 mb at 11 AM EDT moving W at 12 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Gonzalo will move to
10.0N 45.3W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.0N 47.7W
Thu morning, 10.1N 50.2W Thu evening, 10.4N 52.8W Fri morning, 10.7N
55.6W Fri evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near 11.4N 58.8W
Sat morning. Gonzalo will change little in intensity as it continues
to move westward over the Caribbean through early Sun.  See Special
Features section above for more information on Tropical storm
Gonzalo.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...


Active convection continues west of the Bahamas as tropical
moisture continues to follow a tropical wave that is in the Gulf
of Mexico. Elsewhere, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near
33N40W, with associated ridge extending westward roughly along
32N. Light to gentle winds prevail along the ridge axis. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure center and Tropical
Storm Gonzalo is supporting fresh to locally strong winds generally
over the waters south of 25N and east of 60W. Fresh to strong winds
are also noted within 60 NM north of Hispaniola. Elsewhere, gentle
to moderate winds prevail.

A ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally
strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward
Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas will increase E
of 65W toward the end of the week as high pressure builds across the
western Atlantic.

$$
MMT/SBK
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