[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 220832
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072020
500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020

The cyclone has become a little better organized this morning with
indications of it developing convective banding features.  Intensity
estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30
kt and 35 kt respectively.  I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt
estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we
will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon.  The
intensity forecast for this system is subject to more than the usual
degree of uncertainty.  Although the cyclone is likely to remain in
an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and
large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls
for some strengthening during the next couple of days followed by
a leveling off thereafter.  This is below the model consensus, but
above the global model predictions which eventually dissipate the
cyclone.  It should also be noted that the small size of this
system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations
in intensity, both upward and downward.

The motion continues a little north of due west or 285/10 kt.  A
well-defined subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place to
the north of the tropical cyclone during the forecast period.  The
official forecast, like the previous one, is for a generally
westward motion at a fast forward speed over the forecast periods.
This is in close agreement with the latest dynamical model
consensus.

Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 10.0N  42.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 10.2N  44.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 10.2N  46.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 10.2N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 10.4N  51.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 10.8N  54.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 11.3N  57.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 12.7N  64.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 15.0N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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