[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220608
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression SEVEN, at 22/0000 UTC, is near
09.8N 40.8W. T.D. SEVEN is moving WNW, or 285 degrees, 8 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 11N
between 41W and 43W. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any
nearby precipitation is part of the monsoon trough precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. High pressure to the
north of the tropical wave is building, which has strengthened
the steering flow. This has increased the motion of the tropical
wave, which is now moving westward at 20 to 25 knots. This is
much faster than the average forward speed of tropical wave.
Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is part of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any
nearby precipitation is part of the ITCZ precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 22N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to the west
of the tropical wave from 17N to 24N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 23N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.  Precipitation:
scattered strong is in Central America, within 150 nm to the
west of the tropical wave, from 09N to 16N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 16N17W, to 14N20W to 11N30W, and to 11N36W. The ITCZ is
along 08N/09N between 50W and 58W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough from 26W eastward, and elsewhere within 420 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, except with respect to the
precipitation that is close to T.D. SEVEN.

GULF OF MEXICO

A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 25N86W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 390 nm of
the center in the E quadrant in the Gulf of Mexico and in the
Straits of Florida, and within 540 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant in the Caribbean Sea. This low pressure center is
expected to move through the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight, to move
into the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday. Gradual tropical cyclone
formation is possible while it moves west-northwestward during
the next few days. Increasing wind speeds and sea heights are
expected in association with this low pressure center.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond
southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered strong is along
the coast, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 11.5N
southward between the coast of Colombia and 79W.

Tropical Depression Seven near 10.0N 41.3W 1008 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
Seven will strengthen to a tropical storm near 10.2N 42.7W Wed
morning, move to 10.3N 45.0W Wed evening, 10.4N 47.5W Thu
morning, 10.5N 50.1W Thu evening, 10.8N 52.9W Fri morning, and
11.3N 56.0W Fri evening. Tropical Cyclone Seven will change
little in intensity as it moves westward through the southwest
Caribbean through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to
locally strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the
Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas
will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

$$
mt
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