[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211822
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT TUE Jul 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.


Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 1500 UTC, satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data
indicate the low pressure system located near 09N39W continues
to get better organized. Showers and thunderstorms extend 260 nm
on the east semicircle and 180 to the west semicircle. The low
has high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hrs while it moves westward at 10 kt. If current trends
continue, advisories could be initiated on this system as a
tropical depression later today. Regardless of development
during the next couple of days, less favorable conditions should
limit additional development by the weekend. This wave has a
high chance of  tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours.

Refer to the latest  NHC Tropical Weathet Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave moving off Africa is along 16W south
of 20N. Broad area of scattered moderate convection extends 200
nm west of the tropical wave and along the coast of Africa.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, south of 18N, moving
west at 15 kt. Low pressure has developed in association to this
wave, and is discussed in the special features section above.
The tropical wave continues to progress westward ahead of the
low pressure. Most of the moderate convection remains near the
low but scattered showers are observed along the wave axis and
south of 08N, near the ITCZ. The wave will continue to move
further away from the surface low over the next few days. With
high pressure strengthening over the subtropics, the steering
flow will increase, and help the wave to increase its westward
motion to around 20 to 25 kt within the next 24 to 48 hours.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 17N southward,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along
and within 120 nm of the wave axis from 08N to 10N between
53W-57W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W from 21N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
within 60 nm E of the wave axis south of the U.S. Virgin
Islands, over Puerto Rico and adjacent coastal waters.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W south of 24N across
Panama and into the eastern north Pacific, moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 300 nm E
of the Wave. A weak surface low is noted to the west of the wave
near 24N83W. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours as the northern portion of
the wave moves west across the Gulf of Mexico. The southern
portion of the wave and the proximity of the Pacific monsoon
trough is producing scattered moderate to strong convection in
the far SW Caribbean from the coast of Nicaragua south into
Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 06N44W to 07N53W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave near the coast of Brazil from 08N57W to
07N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
and low pressure described above, scattered moderate convection
is noted near both boundaries. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is near the coast of Africa east of 23W. This
is ahead of the next tropical wave which is moving off the coast
of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO

The northern extent of the  tropical wave over the NW Caribbean
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms west of Jamaica, over western Cuba, the
northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent
Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the
next few days. This system is expected to move over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today, the central Gulf on
Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday.

A surface trough is moving inland over Texas from the NW Gulf.
Scattered moderate convection are north of 28N between 93W and
96W, including over the coast between south-central Louisiana
and Galveston Bay. Surface trough is observed over the Bay of
Campeche with no significant convection in the region. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the SW Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds
are noted elsewhere.

A weak low pressure has developed over the SE Gulf near the
northern end of a tropical wave. This system is expected to move
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, the central Gulf on
Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday.
Increasing winds and seas are expected in association with this
system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see above for more on an active tropical wave moving
across the western Caribbean. The tropical wave is helping
produce active weather south of Cuba.

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the south central Caribbean.
Elsewhere, fresh winds prevail over the north and northwest
Caribbean,  moderate winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean,
and light to gentle winds prevail over the west and southwest
Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area
and low  pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to locally
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean this week.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will persist across
the region for the next several days. Expect increasing winds
and seas over the NE Caribbean toward the end of the week as
high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical wave moving across South Florida and the Florida
Straits is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection south of 23N, between 74W and the Florida Straits.
Moderate to fresh with isolated strong winds are noted across
the area from 23N-24N between 65W and the Florida Straits.
Moderate to fresh cover most of the basin south of 26N as 1025
mb high pressure extends across the basin. Two additional troughs
are noted, one from 27N61W to 31N56W and a second trough from
28N53W to 32N48W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
both troughs.

The ridge north of the area will support pulses of fresh to
locally  strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to
the Windward Passage for the next several nights. Winds and seas
will increase E of 65W toward the end of the week as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

$$
MMT
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