[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 211738
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the adjacent waters of the Atlantic,
Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.  Gradual development of this
system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the
next few days.  This system is expected to cross the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and tonight, move over the central
Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and
Friday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure area
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Lesser Antilles continue to get better organized, and a tropical
depression appears to be forming.  If current trends continue,
advisories could be initiated on this system this afternoon.
Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less
favorable conditions should limit additional development of the
system by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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