[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 211503
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update the status of the
reconnaissance mission originally scheduled for the system near the
Straits of Florida and to increase the formation chances for the
system in the tropical Atlantic.

Updated:  A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over western Cuba, the northwestern
Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean
waters.  Gradual development of this system is possible while it
moves west-northwestward during the next few days.  This system is
expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today,
the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on
Thursday and Friday.  The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon has
been canceled.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Updated:  Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate
that the low pressure system located about midway between the west
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles continues to get better
organized.  If current trends continue, advisories could be
initiated on this system as a tropical depression later today.
Regardless of development during the next couple of days, less
favorable conditions should limit additional development by the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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