[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 201145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas, central
and eastern Cuba, and the adjacent Atlantic waters are associated
with a tropical wave.  This system is expected to move
west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida today, over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, across the central Gulf on
Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development of this system once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000
miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a little
better organized this morning.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system
during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
over the tropical Atlantic.  By Friday and over the weekend,
conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical
cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Surface observations indicate that a weak low pressure area has
formed over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The associated shower
and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, and little
additional development is expected before the system moves inland
over Texas tonight or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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