[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181704
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 23W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 10N within 60 nm of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W, from 17N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 05N-11N within 60 nm of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W from 21N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. No significant convection is noted at
this time.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 65W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. No significant convection is noted
at this time.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W from the SE Gulf of
Mexico southward across the Caribbean Sea, moving westward at 10
to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted across the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Channel.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N30W to 07N42W. The ITCZ continues from 07N42W to 07N49W,
then resumes from 09N52W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W.
Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section,
scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm along the
monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm
south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough continues to meander along the central Gulf. At
1500 UTC, the trough was analyzed along 89W from 22N-28N. A trough
is also analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 21N95W to 18N93W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is across the
Gulf, N of 22N between 82W-94W. Scattered thunderstorms are also
in the vicinity of the trough in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds continue to prevail over the SE Gulf. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas range 3-5 ft.

A surface trough will weaken over the central Gulf later today or
tonight. A second trough will cross Florida today and pass over
the eastern Gulf tonight and Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas will prevail through early next week. Looking ahead,
another trough may move across the Gulf during the middle of next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean, N of
19N between 75W-85W. This includes the Cuban coast, Cayman Islands
and Jamaica. A trough is along the Yucatan coast which is
providing focus for convection along the coasts of Mexico and
Belize. Scattered moderate convection is also in the SW Caribbean
off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Fresh trades are north
of Colombia. Otherwise, light to gentle trades are noted across
the rest of the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft near
the fresh winds north of Colombia.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of next
week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
across the region for the next several days. Winds and seas may
increase E of the Lesser Antilles Tue night through Wed night as
high pressure strengthens north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough is analyzed along the Florida coast from 29N80W to
24N79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
along the trough, mostly between Florida and the Bahamas. Another
trough is analyzed from 28N70W to 23N72W with no significant
convection noted. An upper level low near 23N66W is causing
scattered moderate convection from 22N-26N between 62W-69W. A pre-
frontal trough is analyzed from 31N52W to 28N55W with showers to
the east of the trough. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Gentle
to moderate winds prevail across the discussion area with seas
ranging from 3-6 ft.

A high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of
fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the
Windward Passage for the next couple of nights. Expect freshening
winds over the waters S of 24N Sun through early next week as a
low pressure trough moves westward across the region.

$$
AReinhart
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