[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is part of the monsoon trough/ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is 46W/47W from 13N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is part of the monsoon trough/ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 62W/63W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 210 nm on either
side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 22N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is from the Atlantic
Ocean coast of Cuba to 28N, including in Florida, between 73W in
the Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated
moderate is in the NW Caribbean Sea from 18N and Jamaica to
Cuba, from Jamaica westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of The
Gambia near 13N17W, to 10N27W and 08N39W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N39W, to 07N47W, 10N55W and 10N60W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is from 14N to 17N between 16W and
19W, in the coastal waters and the coastal plains of Senegal and
Mauritania. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from
06N to 10N between 27W and 32W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level inverted trough extends from SE Louisiana, into
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends
from the Florida Big Bend, southwestward, to 24N88W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
from 23N northward.

Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is along the coast
of Mexico, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico and inland in
Mexico, from 17N to 20N between 91W and 93W. This precipitation
is anywhere from 100 nm to 200 nm to the WNW of the westernmost
part of the surface trough that extends from the coastal waters
of Honduras to northern sections of Guatemala.

A surface trough will pass through the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
from tonight into Saturday. Locally fresh winds are expected
near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere, through
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Atlantic
Ocean, about 320 nm to the north of Puerto Rico. A trough
extends from the cyclonic center, southwestward, beyond
Hispaniola, into the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in the SW part of Haiti and its
surrounding coastal waters. The upper level trough becomes
inverted near 17N74W, and it continues to 14N80W, and eventually
to Panama.

An east-to-west oriented surface trough is within 50 nm of the
northern coast of Honduras, between 86W and northern Guatemala.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from El
Salvador to 17N between 85W and 90W, including in parts of
Central America.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 74W in Colombia beyond
southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
is in a cluster that is from 10N to 11N between 80W and 81W.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere in the SW Caribbean Sea, from 12N
southward, from 74W westward.

The pressure gradient, between high pressure to the north of the
area and climatological low pressure in Colombia, will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea,
through the middle of next week. Gentle to moderate trade winds
will prevail across the rest of the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves from 29N66W to 20N70W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side of the trough.

A surface trough passes through 32N50W to 27N59W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the
trough.

A surface trough is along 39W/40W from 24N to 34N.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either
side of the trough.

Areas of cyclonic vorticity, that are associated with tropical
waves, are along 45W from 18N to 22N, and along 54W/55W from 18N
to 21N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 16N to 23N
between 40W and 60W.

A ridge to the north of the area will support pulses of fresh to
strong winds off Hispaniola, and near the entrance to the
Windward Passage, for the next couple of nights. It is possible
that the wind speeds and the sea heights may increase to the E
of 65W, from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, following
the passage of a tropical wave.

$$
mt
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