[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM Thu Jul 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W, from 02N to 19N,
moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: Nearby precipitation
is associated with the monsoon trough precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 02N to 16N,
moving westward at 20 knots. Precipitation: Nearby precipitation
is associated the monsoon trough/ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Saharan dust present
near this wave has been inhibiting significant deep convective
precipitation from developing in association with the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 21N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Precipitation: Strong subsidence
and dry air in this part of the Caribbean Sea, is inhibiting
significant deep convection from developing with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal, near 14N17W, to 08N24W, to 07N39W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N40W, to 08N49W, to 08N55W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate isolated strong is within 240 nm north of the monsoon
trough between the 27W tropical wave and 30W. Isolated moderate
is elsewhere from 14N southward and 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level inverted trough passes
through the Yucatan Peninsula, curving toward the middle Texas
Gulf coast.

Scattered moderate isolated strong precipitation is from 27N
northward between 88W and 93W, including SE Louisiana and its
coastal waters.

A surface ridge extends from a 1019 mb high pressure center near
27N86W, to 27N94W, and then southwestward, to the coast of
Mexico near 19N. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire area.

High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico will drift northward
through Friday. The high pressure will be in advance of a
surface trough, that will be moving across Florida into the SE
Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, are
expected across the region, except for locally fresh winds near
the coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is from the Mona Passage, into the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Panama along 80W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate isolated strong is from 16N to
20N between 72W and 92W, in the coastal waters from Haiti across
Jamaica to southern Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate in the SW Caribbean
Sea, from 12N southward, and 75W westward.

High pressure to the north of the area will maintain pulses of
fresh to strong winds this morning in the Windward Passage, in
the Gulf of Honduras, and north of Colombia. These winds will
diminish later today, as the high pressure center shifts more to
the north.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, from 32N60W to
23N63W, to the Mona Passage. A N-to-S oriented surface trough is
along 73W from 21N to 27N. A surface trough is in the central
Atlantic Ocean, from 34N50W to 27N57W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 18N northward and 50W westward.

A surface trough that is to the east of the area will weaken, as
it moves into the northern Bahamas by Saturday. A ridge will
build to the north of the area, supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds, to the south of 22N into early next week.

$$
mt/dbm
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