[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151731
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 23W from 02N-18N,
moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is within 150 nm ahead and 120 nm behind the wave axis from
05N-12N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 36W from 02N-
16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
ahead and 210 nm behind the wave axis from 04N-07N.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 51W from 03N-
20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are along and within
150 nm ahead of the wave axis from 05N-11N.

A new tropical wave has been added to the analysis over the
eastern Caribbean along 63W from 12N-22N. The tropical wave is
moving W around 15 kt. Isolated showers prevail within 60 nm
ahead and 150 nm behind the wave, mainly N of 15.5N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 13N17W
to 09N20W to 09N36W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to
08N49W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N53W to
07N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen along the coast of Africa from 08N-11N, east
of 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid- to upper-level trough extends from the western Florida
Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana. This upper trough is
enhancing scattered to numerous thunderstorms from 28N-31N
between 85W-90W, including the nearshore waters between
Tallahassee and SE Louisiana. Surface ridging prevails
elsewhere, anchored by a 1018 mb high near 26N85W. Gentle
wind speeds prevail across the eastern and central Gulf,
with moderate speeds closer to Texas and in the SW Gulf.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through late Thu
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of
the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. The ridge will shift
north by Fri, ahead of a trough that will move westward across
Florida and into the southeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper-level inverted trough over Central America is
supporting numerous moderate isolated strong convection over
Nicaragua, and adjacent waters of the Caribbean within 60 nm of
the coast of Nicaragua. Saharan dust prevails across most of the
remainder of the basin, keeping the atmosphere stable and
limiting any shower activity. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong
trades in the south-central Caribbean, south of 14N between 73W-
78W.

Prevalent Atlantic high pressure extending a ridge to the
northern Caribbean waters will sustain fresh to strong winds in
the south-central basin and portions of the SW Caribbean through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A small surface trough extends from 30N76W to 28.5N77.5W. A more
significant surface trough extends from 30N69W to 23N72W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms prevail across the area
from 21N-31N between 69W and the east coast of Florida,
including the Bahamas. Farther east, another surface trough is
analyzed from 31N52W to 24N57W, with isolated showers near the
trough axis. Yet another surface trough extends from 15N30W to
19N39W. A recent ASCAT pass shows gentle wind speeds across
most of the area, except for locally fresh in the Windward
Passage. An ASCAT pass also shows strong N to NE winds east of
22W, north of the Canary Islands.

A trough north of the Bahamas will shift west as high pressure
rebuilds in the region. This pattern will maintain moderate to
fresh trade winds north of Hispaniola and near the Windward
Passage through the weekend.

$$
Hagen
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