[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM Wed Jul 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/20W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 240 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, from 07N to 11N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is 33W/34W from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is part of the monsoon trough precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Dry air is
surrounding the area that is around the tropical wave. any
nearby precipitation is part of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
precipitation.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots.
The wave is at the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A
middle level to upper level inverted trough is about 400 nm to
the east of the tropical wave. Little to no significant deep
convective precipitation is close to the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau, near 12N16W, to 09N22W 11N27W
09N34W, and 08N46W. The ITCZ continues from 08N46W, to 07N57W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 100 nm to
the north of the monsoon trough, and within 200 nm to the south
of the monsoon trough, between 20W and 24W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 25N85W. A surface ridge
is along 25N. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire area.

The GFS model for 700 mb shows: a trough in the NE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. One area of anticyclonic wind flow covers the NW
corner of the area. A second and separate area of anticyclonic
wind flow covers the SE corner of the area. An inverted trough
extends from a part of the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into
the SW corner of the area. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf of Mexico, through late
Wednesday. Expect gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas. An
exception will be moderate to locally fresh winds near the W
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local effects. The ridge
will shift northward, starting mid week, in advance of a
trough that will move westward across Florida and into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the SW
Caribbean Sea, from 14N southward, from 72W westward.
Saharan dust, as observed in GOES-R imagery, covers much of the
remainder of the basin, roughly east of 82W and north of 12N.

A nearly stationary Atlantic Ocean ridge, that is extending to
the northern Caribbean Sea, will maintain fresh to strong winds
in the south central basin and in parts of the SW Caribbean Sea,
through the weekend. Near gale-force winds are expected along
the coast of Colombia through Wednesday night, along with fresh
to strong winds in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of
Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 32N76W to 25N79W. Precipitation:
warming cloud top temperatures, and broken to overcast
multilayered convective debris clouds, are moving away from the
coastal plains of the eastern coast of Florida.

Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N
to 27N between 67W and 71W. The GFS model for 250 mb shows an
east-to-west oriented inverted trough along 21N/22N between 63W
and 71W. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows a
NW-to-SE oriented inverted trough, that is from 120 nm to 180 nm
to the east of the area of precipitation.

A second surface trough is about 470 nm to the NNW of the
47W/48W tropical wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 23N northward between the 47W/48W
tropical wave and 60W.

A third surface trough is about 400 nm to the W of the 47W/48W
tropical wave. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 14N to 20N between the 47W/48W tropical wave and
60W.

A trough that is to the north of the Bahamas will persist
through mid week, then shift west as high pressure builds to the
north of the region. This pattern will maintain moderate to
fresh trade winds
near the Windward Passage through late in the week.

$$
mt
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