[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 092057
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have
shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North
Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer
Banks today.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the
center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and
that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east
and southeast of the center.AÌ‚Â  Based on these observations, the
system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity
of 40 kt.

Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an
area of light to moderate westerly shear.  These environmental
conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday.
After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the
mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of
the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification.  Fay
should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or
Saturday.

Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a
highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally
northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic
and an approaching mid-latitude trough.  The 12Z dynamical model
guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close
to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.AÌ‚Â  With the recent center
reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the
dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model
fields imply.  As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side
of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is
indicated in the model fields.

The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the
mid-Atlantic states to southern New England.

Key Messages:

1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated
totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic
states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains
may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time.

2. Tropical storm conditionsAÌ‚Â are expected along portions of the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey,
New York and Connecticut, including Long Island.AÌ‚Â 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 35.5N  74.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 37.1N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 39.0N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 41.6N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/1800Z 45.3N  72.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0600Z 49.1N  70.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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