[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082213
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 PM EDT Wed Jul 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of northeastern
South Carolina continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters and
portions of eastern North Carolina. The low is expected to move
northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move
along the mid-Atlantic coast Friday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across
portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and
southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are
also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks through
Thursday and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts Friday and Saturday. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system and refer to products from
your local National Weather Service office. The chance of
formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is
high. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook, at
www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 39W/40W S of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Saharan air and an associated low level wind surge have moved
well ahead of this wave, and can be seen from 10N to 22N, across
the Atlantic Ocean to the Lesser Antilles. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N-10N between 37W-46W.

A tropical wave is along 66W/67W from central Venezuela to Puerto
Rico, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 19N-22N between 66W-70W, with
similar convection noted across the majority of Hispaniola.

A tropical wave is along 78W from eastern Cuba to across Jamaica
to near the Colombia/Panama border, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
09N-15N between 75W-84W, with similar convection noted over
Jamaica, NW Colombia, and portions of Central America.

A tropical wave is along 89W from Belize southward to across
portions of Central America, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave will
completely move into the Pacific basin overnight. No significant
convection is noted outside of the Pacific basin.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from near the Guinea/Guinea-Bissau
border to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 09N23W to 09N37W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave from 09N41W to the coast of Brazil
near 02N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N-13N between 15W-23W, likely associated with the
next tropical wave. Similar convection is noted from 05N-07N
between 31W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N87W.
Satellite and radar imagery indicate isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms over portions of the Florida peninsula, and
across southern Alabama and Mississippi. Similar activity is noted
over eastern Cuba toward the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, fairly
tranquil weather is noted over the waters. Light to gentle winds
are noted near the high center per afternoon scatterometer data,
with moderate to locally fresh return flow elsewhere. Seas are 3
ft or less E of 90W and 4-6 ft W of 90W per afternoon altimeter
and ship/buoy data.

Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Gulf through
the weekend with the high center fluctuating between the NW and NE
basin. This will allow for the continuation of moderate to fresh
return flow west of 90W and moderate westerly winds across NE
portions of the basin. Scattered showers are forecast for the NE
and SE portions of the basin Fri and Sat as associated with a
broad area of low pressure currently centered over North Carolina.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 mb low pressure area is near 10N78W along a tropical wave.
with two other tropical waves impacting the basin as is described
above. Otherwise, high pressure prevails N-NE of the basin.
Fresh to strong trade winds are noted in the S-central Caribbean
along with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
elsewhere, except gentle in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 4-6 ft
elsewhere in the Caribbean, except 3 ft or less over the majority
of the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic high pressure extending to the northern Caribbean waters
will allow the continuation of fresh to strong tradewinds in the
S-central Caribbean increasing to near gale force Fri and Sat
nights. Freshening winds, building seas and active weather
accompanying the strong tropical wave along 78W will shift W
across the basin through Fri. Strong winds will pulse at night in
the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through the weekend. Another strong
tropical wave will reach the tropical N Atlc waters Sat and move
across the E Caribbean Sat night and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 32N50W to 28N60W to 30N66W.
Scattered showers are likely on either side of the trough within
120 nm. A cold front curls from offshore of the Carolinas to
coastal Georgia. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted within 240 nm SE of the front. Moderate to fresh SW winds
are noted N of 28N and W of 75W ahead of the front, with moderate
to fresh SE flow N of Hispaniola. A 1028 mb high pressure is
centered NE of the Azores near 40N25W with a ridge axis reaching
SW-W through 32N38W all the way to near the northern Bahamas. Gentle
winds prevail elsewhere N of 25N, with moderate to fresh trades
elsewhere S of 25N.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the front and
area of low pressure over the SE United States will continue to
affect the waters E and N of the Bahamas through the weekend.
Surface ridging will dominate the remainder of the waters E of
70W. The pressure gradient between the low and the ridge will
support moderate to fresh winds across most of the region,
increasing to fresh to strong winds N of the Bahamas over the
weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net