[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Edouard is centered near 37.2N 56.9W at 06/0300
UTC or 595 nm SSW of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving NE at 30 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. An even faster motion
to the NE is anticipated during the next couple of days. Little
significant change in strength is forecast before Edouard is
forecast to become post-tropical on Monday.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 26W
from 00N-20N, is moving west at 10 kt. Saharan dust is
noted over much of the eastern Atlantic, mainly from 10N to 22N
east of 35W. With this, scattered showers are noted below 10N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 46W from
04N-19N, is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 07N-14N between 45W-55W.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean was repositioned based
on latest observations and model guidance. The wave's axis
extends along 63W from 05N-22N, and it is moving west at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis, mainly south of 10N
affecting Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 12N22W. The ITCZ is
analyzed from 05N29W to 08N45W. Scattered showers are noted
along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A small 1011 mb low pressure area is centered over the north-
central Gulf coast near 30N88W. A surface trough extends from
the low to 26N88W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the
vicinity of the trough. A thermal trough is analyzed over the
Bay of Campeche with scattered showers. Gentle to moderate
breezes and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted across the remainder of
the basin.

The low center will move NE and inland along the northern Gulf
Coast by early Mon with fresh to locally strong SW winds
prevailing across the NE waters E of 87W. A narrow high pressure
ridge will persist along 25N-26N for the next several days, with
moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds prevailing over the
waters W of 90W. A low pressure trough will move off the Yucatan
Peninsula each evening and freshen winds over the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the eastern Caribbean.

A weakening upper trough extends from over the Windward Passage
to central Panama. Subsident northerly flow on the west side of
this feature has suppressed the convection across the basin.
Surface ridging north of the area is maintaining fresh trades
over the southern Caribbean, possibly reaching 25 kt off
Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are noted across the basin.
Seas range between 3-6 ft, with 8 ft seas possible north of
Colombia.

A weak high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean through Fri night. Locally strong winds are expected
tonight and Mon night across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by
pulses of fresh winds through midweek. Expect increasing winds
and seas over the Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon through Tue
behind the tropical wave that will cross the Lesser Antilles and
the eastern Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for information on T.S. Edouard
and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A weak surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from
29N79W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are noted along and west of
this trough. A surface ridge extends along 25N west of 55W,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
persist over open waters. For the forecast, the surface ridge
along 25N will gradually lift northward this week. A weak low
pressure trough offshore of northern Florida will drift
northward and dissipate on Mon. Low pressure may approach the
coast of the Carolinas later this week and pull a trough across
the northern Florida offshore waters. Increasing winds and seas
are possible over the waters north of 27N Wed through Fri.

Farther east, a surface ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure
near 40N30W. Fresh to strong trades and 7 to 10 ft seas are
noted over much of the eastern Atlantic between this ridge and
the deep tropics.

$$

ERA
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