[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Five is centered near 33.3N 64.9W at 0900 UTC,
or 70 nm N of Bermuda, moving NE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains
30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. An earlier scatterometer pass indicted
winds to 20 kt along 31N near 67W, with seas estimated to range
between 7-8 ft. The depression is expected to continue moving NE
and gradually accelerate over the next few days, increasing to a
minimal tropical storm bu this afternoon. Conditions across the
discussion area south of T.D. Five will improve quickly this
morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is off the coast of western
Africa with axis along 20W-21W from 03N-19N, moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N-12N
east of 20W to the coast.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 37W from 02N-
21N, is moving west at 15-20 kt.  This wave is noted in IR
imagery and wave diagnostics. Widely scattered moderate convection
is noted ahead of the wave from 06.5-13N between 37W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 52W from 01N-
21N, is moving west at 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave
is found S of 05N near the ITCZ.

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean with axis
along the Lesser Antilles near 63W from 04N-22N, moving west at
15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 18N16W to
11N28W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 09N38W to 07N50W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-12N between
41W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridge prevails across the basin, extending from the
Straits of Florida to 25N95W. A persistent surface trough is
noted over the north/central Gulf extending along about 30N.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail south of the
trough to 28N, and offshore of the SE Louisiana coast from 26-28N.
Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds
across most of the basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are
noted over the Bay of Campeche, while gentle to moderate southerly
winds prevail over the northwest Gulf.

High pressure will persist along 24N-25N through the middle of
the week. Moderate to fresh SE flow will develop over the waters
W of 90W on Sun night and persist through the middle of next
week as high pressure shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

An active monsoon trough combined with a tropical wave are
supporting scattered moderate convection across Central America
and NW Colombia, affecting the waters south of 14N between 75W-
83W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds
prevailing across the central and southern portions of the basin,
while gentle winds prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the western
Atlantic along 25N-26N into the Bahamas will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the
middle of next week. Locally strong winds are expected Sun night
and Mon night across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of
fresh winds through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for information on T.D. Five
and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A weak surface trough extends from NE Florida offshore along 30N
to near 75W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and
south of the trough to 28N. Scattered moderate convection also
continues from the SE Florida coast to the NW Bahamas from 24.5N
to 27N. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the
basin, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 38N32W.

For the forecast, the ridge will persist along 25N through this
evening, then gradually lift northward to along 28N by mid week.
The weak trough will linger off the northern Florida coast
through this afternoon, then drift N and dissipate by Mon.

Farther east, fresh to strong NW winds and 7 to 9 ft seas persist
off the northwest coast of Africa, mainly north of 15N and east
of 25W, between the high pressure over the Azores and lower
pressure over the Sahara. Elsewhere moderate to fresh easterly
flow persist east of 55W with 6 to 8 ft seas in NW swell. No
significant convection persists north of 20N.

$$
Stripling
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