[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2244 UTC Fri Jul 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands,
along 20W southward of 18N, moving west at 15-20 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 18W-25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed near 42W south of
15N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 07N to 09N between 45W and 48W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W southward of 18N,
moving west at 20 knots. No significant convection is associated
with this wave at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W south of 19N, moving
westward 20 knots. Numerous moderate to strong convection is in
the SW Caribbean near this wave and the monsoon trough, from 10N-
15N west of 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 10N25W. The ITCZ continues from 10N25W to 04N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 18W-25W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N
between 45W and 48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active off the
northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula, southeast of a sharp
upper trough reaching from the central Gulf to the coast of
Mexico, south of Tampico. Moderate NW winds are noted over the northeast
Gulf, just ahead of a frontal boundary stalled from northeast
Florida to central Alabama. 1017 mb surface high pressure is
centered near 25N90W. This is maintaining light breezes across
remainder of the Gulf, where seas are only 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure will persist along 25N-26N
through early next week. Moderate to fresh southeast flow will
develop over the waters W of 87W Sun night through the middle of
next week as high pressure shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active off
the coast of Nicaragua. These are supported by converging trade
winds and a tropical wave moving into the area. A few showers are
also noted across parts of the Windward Islands, help a little
bit by an upper trough over the eastern Caribbean. Subsident
northerly flow aloft dominates the remainder of the basin, with
little shower activity noted. Moderate to fresh trade winds
dominate the southern Caribbean, where seas are 5 to 7 ft except
for 8 ft off Colombia. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted
elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft except for 2 to 4 ft in the northwest
Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure across the western Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Locally strong winds
are expected Sun night across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by
pulses of fresh winds through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a stalled
frontal boundary reaching from 31N75W to near Jacksonville
Florida. A pre-frontal trough reaches from 29N74W through the
northern Bahamas. A cluster of thunderstorms are also active
along this trough near 29N73W. A few showers and thunderstorms
are active near 25N68W, associated with an upper trough from
Bermuda to Haiti. Outside of thunderstorms, light to gentle
breezes and seas 2 to 4 ft in open waters west of 65W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the high pressure ridge will
persist roughly along 25N through Sun, then gradually lift
northward through early next week. A low pressure trough will
move eastward across the waters N of 27N through Sat night,
bringing fresh winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. A
cold front will stall and weaken near 31N tonight into Sat.

Farther east, a broad ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure
area near the Azores to roughly 25N65W. Fresh to strong NE winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas persist between northwest Africa and the high
pressure, mainly north of 20N and east of 35W. Gentle to
moderate winds persist elsewhere with 4 to 6 ft seas.

$$
Christensen
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