[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just offshore of western Africa, along
17W southward of 18N, moving west at 15-20 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 10W-20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 71W southward of 16N,
moving west at 20 knots. No significant convection is associated
with this wave at this time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 19N
southward, moving west at 20-25 knots. This wave has been
accompanied by Saharan air and is inhibiting convection at this
time.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 19N southward,
moving westward 20 to 25 knots. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is in the SW Caribbean near this wave and the monsoon
trough, from 09N-14N between 78W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau/Senegal near 12N17W to 11N26W. The ITCZ continues from
11N26 to 06N41W, then from 06N42W to 03N49W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted within 200 nm either side of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ between 20W-38W, and within 200 nm N of
the ITCZ between 42W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper level trough extends from northern Florida to the
central Gulf with upper level ridging across the western Gulf. At
the surface, a 1016 mb high is located near 26N92W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen across the central and eastern Gulf, N
of 22N and E of 92W. Isolated thunderstorms are in the Bay of
Campeche. The western Gulf has no convective activity at this
time. Light to gentle winds are noted across the basin. Seas range
from 1 to 3 ft.

High pressure will persist along 25N-26N through early next week.
Moderate to fresh SE flow will develop over the waters W of 87W
early next week as high pressure shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper level ridging dominates the Caribbean and is giving
way to fair weather to most of the basin. Low level winds are
strong enough to bring streamer showers across the Lesser
Antilles. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW
Caribbean near the Gulf of Honduras, from 14N-18N between 82W-87W.
Moderate to fresh trades are in the central Caribbean with light
to gentle trades elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 9
ft north of Colombia.

A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through
early next week. Pulses of fresh to locally strong winds are
expected Sun night into early next week across the Gulf of
Honduras. Winds and seas will increase over the Tropical N
Atlantic waters Mon and Tue with the passage of a tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid-level trough continues to sweep across the western
Atlantic. At the surface, a trough is analyzed from 29N74W to
25N79W. A weak cold front is slowly sinking south from 31N76W to
NE Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
trough and across the Bahamas from 24N-31N between 70W-79W.
Another area of scattered moderate convection is observed from
23N-31N between 58W-68W. A mid-level low is centered near 29N54W.
This is producing showers with isolated thunderstorms from 26N-32N
between 47W-53W. The rest of the Atlantic is dominated by surface
ridging with no significant convection. Moderate to fresh winds
are observed E of 31W with strong to near-gale winds across the
Canary Islands. Seas range 3 to 5 ft in the western Atlantic, and
up to 8 ft in the tropical central Atlantic.

A high pressure ridge will persist roughly along 25N through Sat
night, then gradually lift northward Sun through early next week.
A low pressure trough will move across the waters N of 27N through
Sat night, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and scattered
showers and thunderstorms. A weak cold front will stall and weaken
near 31N tonight into Sat.

$$
AReinhart
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