[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Jul 03 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in western Africa, along 14W/15W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 knots.
Precipitation: within 300 nm to the east of the wave from 11N to
17N. We have been following the westward movement of the
tropical wave in the Hovmoller diagram.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: the wave is
moving through the area of nearby ITCZ precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 19N
southward, moving westward 20 knots. This wave has been
surrounded by Saharan dust, although not as much as in recent
days. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 12N southward between 60W and the
tropical wave. The precipitation is near: Trinidad and Tobago,
and the coastal plains and coastal waters of Venezuela. The base
of the upper level trough, that extends southwestward from the
Atlantic Ocean 27N53W upper level cyclonic circulation center,
is reaching the area of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. The Eastern Pacific
monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia beyond
Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 18N southward between the tropical wave and 85W.

A tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from the northern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, southward, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. The wave is moving westward 15 knots. An
upper level inverted trough is present also, across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is
from 14N to 18N bewteen 92W and 97W, in parts of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and the coastal waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau, near 12N16W, to 10N22W 10N27W and 07N36W. The
ITCZ is along 06N40W, to 05N48W, 07N55W. Precipitation: numerous
strong was from 10N to 14N between 15W and 19W, at least 8 hours
ago or so. That precipitation eventually moved westward and it
weakened and dissipated. Remnant multilayered convective debris
clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation
remain, from 05N to 14N from 24W eastward. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is also within 150 nm to the north of, and within
300 nm to the south of, the monsoon trough and the ITCZ, between
24W and 45W, and elsewhere from 10N southward between 50W and
60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level inverted trough extends from the west central
Florida coast, southwestward, into and beyond the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the rest of the area, mostly in the NW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is
in the coastal plains and coastal waters of the north central
Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward.

A tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from the northern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, southward, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. The wave is moving westward 15 knots. An
upper level inverted trough is present also, across the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is
from 14N to 18N bewteen 92W and 97W, in parts of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and the coastal waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.

An east-to-west oriented surface trough is in the Florida
Panhandle. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within 130 nm to the south of the trough between 84W and 86W.

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is in the SE coastal
sections of Florida. Precipitation: earlier convective
precipitation that was associated with the trough has weakened
and dissipated.

Warming cloud top temperatures and convective debris clouds,
from weakening and possibly still active precipitation, cover
the north central Gulf of Mexico, from 27N northward between 87W
and 93W. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 29N90W.

High pressure along 26N, and benign marine conditions, will
prevail across the region through Monday. Fresh SE winds are
possible at times in the SW Gulf of Mexico early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 19N
southward, moving westward 20 knots.
This wave has been surrounded by Saharan dust, although not as
much as in recent days. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 12N southward
between 60W and the tropical wave. The precipitation is near:
Trinidad and Tobago, and the coastal plains and coastal waters
of Venezuela. The base of the upper level trough, that extends
southwestward from the Atlantic Ocean 27N53W upper level
cyclonic circulation center, is reaching the area of the
tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots.
The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia
beyond Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 18N southward between the tropical wave and 85W.

A ridge extends from a central Atlantic Ocean high pressure
center, WSW to central Florida. The ridge will maintain fresh to
occasionally strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean
Sea into Wednesday. Pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also
are possible early next week in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 27N53W cyclonic circulation
center, southwestward, to the eastern Caribbean Sea, and the
64W/65W tropical wave. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward
between 50W and 70W. The majority of the precipitation is from
24N northward between 50W and 65W.

A stationary front is along 32N, at the border of North Carolina
and South Carolina. Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong is within 180 nm to the south of
the stationary front between 75W and 78W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from the NW Bahamas northward from 74W westward.

A high pressure center is in the central Atlantic Ocean. A ridge
extends WSW, from the center, to central Florida. The ridge will
persist through early next week. Low pressure will develop late
tonight, to the east of Jacksonville Florida, and move eastward
across the northern waters
through Sunday. Expect rainshowers and thunderstorms with gusty
winds, to the areas that are to the north of 27N.

Mostly sunny and uncomfortably warm temperatures are expected
across South Florida the remainder of this week under the
influence of a ridge. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast in the afternoon and early evening
hours.

The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows less African dust, than
observed in previous days, over some of the waters between the W
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

$$
mt
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