[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312230
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fifteen is centered near 32.6N 76.5W at
31/2100 UTC, or 170 nm SSW of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving
NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

A broad area of low pressure is associated with a tropical wave
along 72W over the central Caribbean Sea. Numerous moderate
scattered strong convection is noted from 15N to 18N between 71W
and 74W. This system has changed little in organization since
yesterday, and satellite-derived winds indicate that there is no
closed circulation. However, environmental conditions are expected
to gradually become more conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in
Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula
should monitor the progress of this disturbance. There is a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation with this system during the
next 48 hours.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National
Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 26W from 15N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 13N within 120 nm of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 37W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 10N between 37W and 40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 49W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 10N
to 13N within 60 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to
13N23W to 11N41W. Aside from the convection described above,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to
12N between 20W and 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, with 1016
mb high pressure analyzed near 25N85W. Convective activity across
the NE Gulf has diminished, although some isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity is noted in radar imagery offshore of the
Tampa Bay region. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds
prevail across the waters W of 90W, with 4-6 ft seas. Elsewhere,
light to moderate winds are found across the eastern Gulf with
seas ranging from 2-4 ft.

High pressure will dominate Gulf waters through much of the week.
With its center over the eastern Gulf, moderate to fresh southerly
winds can be expected over the western Gulf into late week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
regarding the potential for tropical cyclone development over the
central Caribbean Sea.

Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds in the
central Caribbean between the low/tropical wave and Hispaniola,
where seas likely peak around 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds prevail across the western Caribbean, with isolated
thunderstorms noted south of western Cuba.

Low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea N of Colombia is
moving quickly west and will cross the western Caribbean through
the week. Environmental conditions are gradually becoming more
favorable for tropical development and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days. A surface trough
will move through the Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean
through early Tue. Overall, moderate trade winds will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
about Tropical Depression Fifteen.

A subtropical ridge axis extends from 1025 mb high pressure near
34N46W westward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted near a surface trough that extends
from 25N64W to 17N61W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh
trades persist over the central Atlantic, with 5-7 ft seas based
on earlier altimeter passes.

High pressure oriented along 28N will dominate this week. A
westward moving surface trough, accompanied by fresh trades, will
reach along 70W Tue, 75W Wed, and 80W Thu.

$$
B Reinhart
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