[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 311741
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over
the central Caribbean Sea has changed little in organization since
yesterday, and satellite-derived winds indicate that there is no
closed circulation.  However, environmental conditions are expected
to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica,
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is located about 135 miles southeast of
Wilmington, North Carolina. This system continues to become better
organized, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today
or tonight while the system moves northeastward, near but
offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States and then
away from land.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
en route to investigate the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a
day or two. Gradual development of this system will be possible
through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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