[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeastern
coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development
of this system is possible, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward
or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast
of the U.S. and then away from land. There is a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean S of 20N with axis near 64W,
moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave is associated with a 1008 mb low
pressure centered near 13N64W at 2100 UTC. This system is
generating scattered showers and tstms S of 19N between 58W and
71W. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become
more conducive for development and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves
moves westward across the central Caribbean Sea. Interests in
Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National
Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N-17N with axis along 21W, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 15N E of
25W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 31W, moving
W at 10 kt. There is no deep convection associated with the wave
as this time.

A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 45W, moving
west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-15N
between 41W and 55W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 12N31W to 13N47W. The
ITCZ begins near 13N48W and continues to 13N58W. For information
on convection, see the Tropical Waves section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging continue to domainte the Gulf waters along
with moderate to locally fresh southerly flow across the western
half of the basin. Otherwise, middle to upper level diffluence
continue to support scattered showers and tstms over the north-
central and northeast gulf.

Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters during the next
several days, with a high pressure center forming over the
southeast Gulf by Mon. The ridge will lift north through mid
week, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over the
western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure area is
located over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 64W. Associated
shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves moves across the central
Caribbean Sea. A surface trough will move through the Leeward
Islands and northeast Caribbean Mon and Tue. High pressure north
of the area will support fresh winds over the Gulf of Honduras
through Mon night, and off Colombia into early Mon. Moderate trade
winds will persist elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring north of
the NW Bahamas and well east of Florida, associated with middle to
upper level diffluent flow. A ridge along roughly 25N will lift
north tonight ahead of a trough moving westward across the waters
south of 25N Mon through mid week. Otherwise, an area of low
pressure is expected to form off the southeastern coast of the
United States in a day or two. This system may briefly increase
winds across the north-central waters.

$$
Ramos
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