[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure is expected to develop off the Georgia and Carolina
coasts tonight. This is near the Gulf Stream, and there is a
medium chance for this low to deepen into a tropical depression
as the low moves northeastward to off Cape Hatteras through late
Tue. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the
National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov for more information.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N-17N with axis along 18W, moving
W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between
16W-18W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N-07N with axis along 29W, moving
W at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave
axis at this time. This system is expected to move slowly for the
next several days, and some development is possible early next
week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave extends from 06N-18N with axis along 42W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident near the
wave axis at this time.

A tropical wave is approaching Barbados, extending from 07N to
20N with axis along 58W/59W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave axis in the eastern
Caribbean, from 12N-16N between 61W-63W. Some gradual development
of this system is possible during the next several days while it
moves westward over the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of
development, this system will likely produce gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Windward and Leeward
Islands today.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 13N35W to 12N40W. The
intertropical convergence zone begins near 11N43W and continues
to 13N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted well south of the ITCZ from 07N-10N between 45W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Recent scatterometer and buoy data show fresh to strong SW winds
off the Florida Panhandle have diminished significantly as high
pressure continues to build into the the Gulf along roughly
25N/26N. Fresh SE to S winds are likely ongoing over the south
central Gulf, between the ridge and lower pressure related to
tropical waves moving through southern Mexico. Seas are 1 to 3 ft
in the southeast Gulf, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the mouth of the
Mississippi River, ahead of an upper trough extending over the
Lower Mississippi Valley and the northeast Gulf. Scattered showers
are also noted over the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the ridge extending from the western Atlantic
into the north central Gulf will persist through the early part of
the week, with high pressure forming over the southeast Gulf by
Mon. The ridge will lift north through mid week, supporting
moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong east winds
over the Gulf of Honduras this morning, as high pressure builds
over the northeastern Caribbean in the wake of a tropical wave
now moving through northern Central America. These winds will
diminish through the morning as the tropical wave continues
westward. Similarly, the high pressure is supporting fresh trade
winds off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
noted over the Leeward Islands and into the northeast Caribbean,
ahead of a tropical wave near Barbados approaching the basin from
the east. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the areas of fresh to strong
winds, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere except 2 to 4 ft in the northeast
Caribbean. Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper trough
reaching from over the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua is
supporting a cluster of moderate to strong showers and
thunderstorms off eastern Panama. Scattered moderate convection is
noted ahead of the wave axis in the eastern Caribbean, from 12N-
16N between 61W-63W.

The tropical wave near Barbados will move into the eastern
Caribbean today, then move across the entire basin through mid
week. A trough will move through the Leeward Islands and northeast
Caribbean Mon and Tue. Another tropical wave will pass west of 55W
by late Wed, and approach the eastern Caribbean by late Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A few showers and thunderstorms are active north of the northern
Bahamas and east of northeast Florida near 30N75W, related to
upper level diffluent flow along a weak frontal boundary north of
the area, with some influence from the nearby Gulf Stream. Fresh
SW winds are noted in the offshore waters off northeast Florida
this morning, and will persist through much of today ahead of a
trough moving off the Carolina coast. Even though low pressure may
form farther north, these winds will diminish overnight as the
trough or low moves farther to the north. Farther south, a ridge
is oriented east-west along along rough 25N/26N west of 65W. This
is an extension of a ridge attached to 1022 mb high pressure
southwest of the Azores near 34N36W. Buoys show seas are 4 to 6 ft
in open waters between 65W and the Bahamas. Farther east, a trough
is near 48W from 18N-27N.

For the forecast, the ridge along roughly 25N will lift north
tonight ahead of the trough as it moves westward across the
waters south of 25N Mon through mid week. Fresh NE winds are
possible ahead of the trough.

Farther east, gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted in the
area of the ridge north of 20N, with moderate to fresh trades and
5 to 8 ft seas farther south. Strong to near gale force winds are
noted off northwest Africa. Meteo France allowed gale warnings
for Agadir off Morocco to expire.

$$
Christensen
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