[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis along 17W,
moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
10N E of 22W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N with axis along 28W,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to
15N between 27W and 31W. This system is expected to move
slowly for the next several days, and some development is
possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical
Atlantic.

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 19N with axis along 41W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
07N to 13N between 39W and 43W.

A tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands extending from
07N to 20N with axis along 58W, moving west at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N to
17N between 58W and 62W. Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the next several days while it moves westward
over the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system
will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands today.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 19N with axis
along 86W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is over W Honduras and El Salvador.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 12N30W to 12N44W. The
ITCZ begins near 12N44W and continues to 12N56W. besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 45W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the
north-central and northeast Gulf of Mexico due to upper level
diffluence east of and upper level trough.

A surface ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the
north central Gulf will persist through early next week. A weak
surface trough over the west central Gulf will form tonight.
Fresh S to SW winds will persist over the south central Gulf
through late Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N
due to the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough.
Similar convection is over the SE Caribbean S of 17N due to a
tropical wave.

Fresh trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean
through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse near
the coast of Colombia at night. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night in the wake
of a tropical wave moving through the area. A second tropical
wave will move into the eastern Caribbean through Sun, and
across the Caribbean through mid week. A trough will move through
the Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate convection is over the N Bahamas due to upper
level diffluence. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic
from 27N45W to 17N47W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of
the trough axis. A 1023 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 34N36W.

Fresh to strong SW winds are possible overnight off
northeast Florida ahead of a trough moving through the Carolina
and Georgia coasts. A ridge along roughly 25N will lift north Sun
night ahead of a trough moving westward across the waters south
of 25N Mon through mid week.

$$
Formosa
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