[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the
Cabo Verde Islands, with axis from 22N32W to 07N28W. It is moving
west at 15 to 20 kt. An associated northern vorticity center north
of 15N and along 32-33W is moving faster than the rest of the
wave axis and providing a NW to SE tilt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 11N-15N between 25W-
32W. Although conditions are not favorable for development over
the next couple of days, there is a low chance of tropical
formation in the next 5 days.

A strong tropical wave axis is over the central Atlantic along
49W from 07N-20N is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-15N between 45W-52W.


A tropical wave axis is along 74W from Haiti to northwestern
Colombia, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted
near the wave axis.

A tropical wave reaches along roughly 95W from the central Bay of
Campeche into the eastern Pacific along 95W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is seen over the Gulf of Mexico south of 22N
within 90 nm either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 12N17W to 13N30W to 14N45W
to 05N55W along the coast of Suriname. The east Pacific Ocean
monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia near 10N76W across Panama to 08N84W in the eastern
Pacific then northwestward and just offshore of the Pacific coasts
to southeast Mexico near 16N97W. Aside from the convection
described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-14N between 32W-40W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted across the
southwest Caribbean from 09N-12N between 77W-83W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Laura was located over northeastern Arkansas
near 36.6N 90.5W at 1500 UTC, moving ENE or 60 degrees at 20 mph.
See the latest advisory issued on Laura by the Weather Prediction
Center.

A ridge extends westward along roughly 25-26N from 1021 mb high
pressure near 26N69W toward the coast of Texas. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly flow is evident between the ridge and the
northern portion of the tropical wave moving across the southwest
Gulf. Fresh SSE flow spreading from the Yucatan Channel into the
south central Gulf if producing low level convergence and a 120 nm band
of scattered showers extending from near 22N92W to near the
coast of Apalachicola, FL. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across most of the
Gulf except for lingering 6 ft seas across the coastal waters
along the LA-TX border.

Moderate to fresh southerly flow will persist over the central
Gulf into early next week between high pressure over the Atlantic,
and tropical waves moving across the far southwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level trough extends from the central Atlantic southwest
to the east Caribbean and is producing stable atmospheric
conditions east of 70W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 74W
between northwest Colombia and SW Haiti. The interactions between
the tropical waves and the ridge are modulating the trade wind
flow over the basin. Fresh SE winds are noted ahead of the
tropical wave from the Gulf of Honduras across the Yucatan
Channel. Trade winds immediately off Colombia are temporarily
suppressed by the wave axis position, but should increase through
the morning. Moderate to fresh trades are noted between 68W and
80W supported by the tropical wave. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over most
of the basin, with up to 7 ft in south central Caribbean.
Convection described above is active off eastern Panama close to
the monsoon trough.

Fresh trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean
through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse for the next several nights in the Gulf of
Honduras region. The tropical wave over the central Caribbean will
move across the western Caribbean through Sat night, accompanied
by a modest increase in winds and seas. Another tropical wave will
enter the eastern Caribbean by late Sat, and then across the
remainder of the Caribbean through early next week. A third
tropical wave may reach the eastern Caribbean by Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high pressure centered near 26N69W and extends a weak
broad ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A 1025 mb
high pressure is just southwest of the Azores with a ridge
reaching SW through 30N45W to the 1021 mb high. Moderate to fresh
tradewinds are seen across the Atlantic generally south of 21-22N.
Stable Saharan Air generally dominates the tropical Atlantic north
of 14N to the Lesser Antilles.

Overall, the high pressure ridge will persist across the western
Atlantic through this weekend. A cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast on Sun, then stall and weaken near or
just north of 31N early next week. Moderate to locally fresh SW
winds may precede the front this weekend over the waters N of 29N.
A tropical wave will increase winds and seas over the waters E of
65W Sun into early next week.

$$
Stripling
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