[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Laura is centered near 33.4N 92.8W at 27/2100 UTC
or 70 nm NE of Shreveport Louisiana moving NNE at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. With Laura having
weakened to a tropical storm this afternoon and continuing to move
northward through Arkansas, the only remaining impacts over Gulf
waters off Louisiana are some strong SW winds and seas of 8 to 10
ft. Conditions should improve further overnight. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more
details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave emerged off the west coast of Africa this
afternoon and now has an axis along 24W. It is moving west at 15
to 20 kt and is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands. To the
north and west, an associated northern vorticity trough is
analyzed from 25N27W to 14N25W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 08N-18N between 15W-25W. Although
conditions are not favorable for development over the next couple
of days, they are forecast to become more conducive over the
weekend and into early next week as this wave moves into the
central and later western tropical Atlantic. There is a low chance
of tropical formation in the next 5 days.

A strong tropical wave axis is along 46W from 02N-17N with 1010
mb low pressure along it near 12N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N-13N between 38W-
49W.

A tropical wave axis is along 68W from the Dominican Republic to
western Venezuela, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant
convection is noted near the wave axis.

A tropical wave previously in the far western Caribbean is moving
across Central America and into the eastern Pacific along 89W.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from
15N-21N between 83W- 89W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania to the coast of
Senegal near 15N16W to 12N30W to low pressure near 12N42W to
09N57W. The east Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends from
Nicaragua to Colombia. Aside from the convection described in the
tropical waves section, scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N-09N between 49W-56W. Scattered
moderate convection is also lingering in the Caribbean Sea from
15N to 20N between 77W-83W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features for information on Tropical Storm
Laura.

A trough associated with Laura is located over the far NW Gulf
offshore the Texas coast, producing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from near 30N91W to 26N96W. Another trough over
the Bay of Campeche extending to offshore Tampico, Mexico, is not
producing any convection this evening.

An Atlantic ridge axis reaches into the area from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to near Tampico, Mexico in the wake of Laura. High
pressure will build over the eastern Gulf through this weekend,
resulting in moderate to fresh southerly flow across the waters W
of 90W through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is analyzed N-NE of the basin, while the monsoon
trough extends from the east Pacific across the SW Caribbean Sea,
displaced more poleward than is typical. Other than the convection
mentioned in the sections above, fair skies cover the remainder of
the basin.

Fresh trade winds will prevail over the south-central
Caribbean through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse
near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse for the next several nights in the Gulf of
Honduras region. A tropical wave along 68W will move across the
central and western Caribbean through Sat night, accompanied by a
modest increase in winds and seas. Another strong tropical wave
will approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters on Sun and move into
the eastern Caribbean early next week. There is a low chance of
gradual tropical development of this system over the next 5 days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front continues to reside along 32N from near
Charleston, South Carolina to Bermuda. A pre-frontal trough
extends from 32N55W to 28N64W to 31N76W with scattered showers
and thunderstorms within 120-180 nm on either side of the trough.

A 1019 mb high pressure center is located near 29N74W to the NE of
the Bahamas, with another of 1020 mb located well N-NE of Puerto
Rico near 25N64W. A 1025 mb high pressure is near the Azores at
36N29W with a ridge reaching SW through 32N33W to 26N50W.

Overall, the high pressure will remain in place while the
stationary front and associated trough gradually dissipate into
the weekend. A cold front will move off the southeastern U.S.
coast on Sun, then stall and weaken near or just north of 31N
early next week. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede
the front this weekend over the waters N of 29N. A strong tropical
wave will increase winds and seas over the waters E of 65W Sun
into early next week.

$$
KONARIK
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net