[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
201 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm LAURA, at 24/0600 UTC, is near
20.7N 78.0W. LAURA is about 100 km to the S of Camaguey in Cuba.
LAURA is moving WNW, or 285 degrees, 18 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 240 nm of the center in
the SW semicircle.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm MARCO, at 24/0600 UTC, is near
27.2N 87.9W. MARCO is about 240 km to the SSE of the mouth of
the Mississippi River. MARCO is moving NNW, or 345 degrees, 10
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75
knots. Precipitation scattered to numerous strong is within 180
nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml
and Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The pressure gradient, that exists between a 1026 mb high
pressure center that is about 920 nm to the WNW of the Canary
Islands, and lower pressures that are in W Africa, supports
gale-force winds near the Canary Islands and the regional
waters. The most recent scatterometer data confirmed the
gale-force winds. The Meteo-France forecast consists of a gale
warning that expires at 25/0000 UTC, in the area of CANARIAS.
Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/m
etarea2, for more details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W/17W from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is within 210
nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 06N to 11N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 23N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is related to the monsoon trough.

A surface trough curves from 27N50W to 20N54W to 08N55W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm on either side
of the surface trough.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 15N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is along
11N73W in NE Colombia, to 11N80W, to NW Nicaragua, through
southern Honduras, El Salvador, and southern Guatemala, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. from 03N to 14N between 72W and 83W,
which covers parts of Colombia, the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, and the coastal waters of Panama and Colombia in the
eastern Pacific Ocean.

A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 19N southward, moving
westward 10 knots, through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in
clusters is from 23N southward between 88W and 97W. The
precipitation covers parts of Mexico and Guatemala, and the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northernmost coastal
sections of Mauritania, to 18N20W, to 10N30W, and 09N37W. The
ITCZ is along 06N40W 09N49W 09N54W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is from 10N southward between 23W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 19N southward, moving
westward 10 knots, through the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in
clusters is from 23N southward between 88W and 97W. The
precipitation covers parts of Mexico and Guatemala, and the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Marco center near 26.8N 87.6W 996 mb
at 11 PM EDT is moving NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60
kt gusts 75 kt. Marco will maintain intensity as it reaches to
near 28.0N 89.7W Mon morning, to near 29.0N 90.2W Mon evening
and move inland to near 29.6N 92.0W Tue morning. Marco will
weaken to a depression near 29.8N 93.6W Tue evening, move inland
to 29.7N 94.9W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening.

Tropical Storm Laura center near 20.1N 76.6W 1000 mb at 11 PM
EDT is moving WNW at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts
60 kt. Laura will maintain intensity as it moves to near 21.1N
79.4W Mon morning, to near 22.5N 82.6W Mon evening with maximum
sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, then intensify to a hurricane
as it reaches near 23.8N 85.7W Tue morning with maximums
sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and continue to intensify as
it reaches to near 25.3N 88.5W Tue evening with maximum
sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. to near 27.1N 90.9W Wed
morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt and to
near 29.2N 92.4W Wed evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt
gusts 110 kt. Laura will weaken to a tropical storm while moving
inland to near 34.2N 90.9W Thu evening. Atlantic Ocean high
pressure will build westward in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in
the wake of Laura.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 15N southward, moving W
10 to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in NE
Colombia, to 11N80W, to NW Nicaragua, through southern Honduras,
El Salvador, and southern Guatemala, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. from 03N to 14N between 72W and 83W, which covers parts
of Colombia, the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and the coastal
waters of Panama and Colombia in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Tropical Storm Laura center near 20.1N 76.6W 1000 mb
at 11 PM EDT is moving WNW at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55
kt gusts 60 kt. Laura will maintain intensity as it moves to
near 21.1N 79.4W Mon morning and to the far southeastern Gulf of
Mexico near 22.5N 82.6W Mon evening. Laura will move westward,
into the southeast Gulf of Mexico more and more, where it will
intensify into a hurricane, and move into the north central Gulf
of Mexico through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 925 nm to
the east of T.S. Laura. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
parts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 17N to
28N between 50W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers
the Atlantic Ocean from 18N to 28N between 57W and 70W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean from 30N northward.

Tropical Storm Laura center near 20.1N 76.6W 1000 mb at 11 PM
EDT is moving WNW at 18 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts
60 kt. Laura will maintain intensity as it moves to near
21.1N 79.4W Mon morning and to the far southeastern Gulf of
Mexico near 22.5N 82.6W Mon evening. Laura will move westward,
into the southeast Gulf of Mexico more, where it will intensify
into a hurricane and move into the north central Gulf of Mexico
through mid-week. High pressure, just to the north of the area,
will shift southward, gradually, late this week, elsewhere.

$$
mt
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